Zambia Raises Petrol to K31.46 and Diesel to K33.27 as Excise Duty Returns

The Zambian Economist — Wed, 30 Sep 2026 19:39:44 +0000

Pump prices rise by almost a quarter from midnight tonight, as higher global oil prices, a weaker kwacha and the return of excise duty bring six months of tax relief at the pump to an end.

By The Zambian Economist Analyst

KEY TAKEAWAYS

Petrol rises by K6.17 to K31.46 per litre and diesel by K6.41 to K33.27, increases of about 24% each, effective midnight on 30 September 2026.
Kerosene goes up by K2.75 to K29.76 per litre and Jet A-1 by K3.14 to K31.85.
International petrol prices climbed from US$104.94 to US$121.58 a barrel over the review period, while the kwacha weakened from K19.28 to K19.76 per US dollar.
Government has reinstated excise duty from October. VAT, zero-rated since April, returns on 1 December 2026.
The Energy Regulation Board says the increase is needed to safeguard security of supply, and that Zambia’s prices remain competitive within the region.

The Energy Regulation Board (ERB) has raised the national uniform pump prices of all four regulated petroleum products for October 2026, ending a period in which tax relief and price smoothing kept fuel costs flat through a sharp rise in world oil prices.

In a statement issued on Wednesday, 30 September, and signed by Board Chairperson James Banda, the regulator said the new prices take effect at midnight tonight and will remain in force until the next scheduled review.

What changes at the pump

Road fuels carry the largest increases. Petrol and diesel each rise by close to a quarter, while kerosene and Jet A-1 rise by roughly a tenth.

Product	September (K/litre)	October (K/litre)	Change (K)	Change (%)
Petrol	25.29	31.46	+6.17	+24.4%
Diesel	26.86	33.27	+6.41	+23.9%
Kerosene	27.02	29.76	+2.75	+10.2%
Jet A-1	28.71	31.85	+3.14	+10.9%

Source: Energy Regulation Board, October 2026 price review. Percentage changes calculated by The Zambian Economist.

In practical terms, filling a 40-litre petrol tank now costs about K1,258, up from about K1,012. A 50-litre diesel fill rises from about K1,343 to K1,664, an extra K320 each time.

Why prices went up

The ERB pointed to three forces acting together. The first is the world market. Continued geopolitical tension in the Middle East pushed the average price of petrol from US$104.94 to US$121.58 per barrel during the review period, a rise of about 16%. Diesel went from US$150.92 to US$160.88, up about 7%, and kerosene and Jet A-1 from US$125.30 to US$144.00, up about 15%.

The second is the exchange rate. The kwacha depreciated from K19.28 to K19.76 against the US dollar, about 2.5%. Because Zambia imports its petroleum and pays in foreign currency, a weaker kwacha raises the local cost of every shipment.

The third, and the one that explains most of the gap between road fuels and the rest, is tax. Excise duty is back from October.

The end of the tax holiday

From April to September 2026, government suspended excise duty on fuel and zero-rated VAT. Together with the ERB’s price-smoothing mechanism, the relief held pump prices steady, including in September, when the regulator kept prices unchanged despite the same oil and currency pressures. The ERB says prices would have been “materially higher” without these measures, and acknowledges that they cost the Treasury foregone tax revenue.

With the relief period over, government has chosen to phase the taxes back in. Excise duty returns now. VAT will be reinstated on 1 December 2026, a sequencing the ERB says is meant to soften the immediate impact on consumers.

The regulator did not break down how much of each increase comes from excise duty alone. The pattern of the increases offers a clue. International diesel prices rose by less than kerosene prices over the period, yet diesel at the pump rose more than twice as much in kwacha terms. That is consistent with excise weighing mainly on road fuels, though the detailed wholesale and pump-price build-ups published on the ERB website will show the exact split.

What it means for households and businesses

Diesel moves most of Zambia’s goods. Haulage, mining, commercial farming, construction and public transport all run on it, so an increase of almost a quarter will travel quickly into transport fares and the delivered price of food and other goods.

The timing matters for farmers. October and November are when land is prepared and inputs are moved ahead of the rains, and many of those costs are diesel costs. Higher haulage charges may also reach retailers before the festive season.

Annual inflation stood at 6.2% in August 2026. Fuel feeds into the consumer price index directly, through transport and household energy, and indirectly, through food and other goods. Some upward pressure on the October and November inflation readings is therefore likely, though its size will depend on how far operators pass the increase on.

What to watch next

The next price review, due at the end of October, will show whether world prices and the kwacha give any room for relief. The more important date is 1 December, when VAT returns. Unless oil prices fall or the kwacha strengthens before then, the reinstatement of VAT points to a further upward adjustment at the December review.

The ERB maintains that the October adjustment is needed to protect security of supply, and that Zambia’s pump prices remain competitive within the region. The regulator has published the full price build-ups for October 2026 at www.erb.org.zm.

Analysis: Fuel Price Shock Hits Zambia’s Pump Stations, Carrying Multi-Layer Effects by Kelvin Chisanga.

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Related: The exchange-rate pressure behind that review is the subject of The Kwacha’s October Slide: Why Copper Dollars Are Not Enough, on how the fuel bill is reshaping dollar demand.