Speaking during a Special Interview in Lusaka with ZNBC, Hichilema said he was monitoring the situation and described himself as “Chief Shushushu,” a local term for chief spy.

Warning Over Alleged Military Training

“I’m the Chief, Shushushu. I know what is happening,” Hichilema said. “My friend, you cannot send people to a foreign country to receive military training and expect them to return and disrupt elections in this country without being arrested.”

“You will be arrested. If you commit a crime, you must be prepared to face the consequences,” he said. “Why would you send people to train somewhere so that they can return and plan to kill?”

The President also condemned remarks attributed to an opposition leader that he was prepared to kill or be killed. “An opposition leader has said that he is prepared to kill or be killed. Nobody wants to kill him,” Hichilema said. “If he says he is prepared to kill, then who is he prepared to kill? Fellow citizens. And for what? Political competition?”

Patriotic Front Record on the CDF and Free Education

Hichilema also turned his attention to the Patriotic Front, which governed Zambia for ten years, criticising the party for not introducing free education. He questioned why the PF did not increase the Constituency Development Fund from 1.6 million kwacha, an amount he said could only cover a 1×3 classroom block, to the 40 million kwacha now allocated under his administration.

“A few people were sleeping on cash, using it as mattresses and pillows,” Hichilema said. “Where was that money coming from? It was coming from loans, including Eurobonds, which they failed to repay. The result was a debt service burden of about 2.3 billion US dollars.”

He said much of that borrowing financed questionable contracts, including projects that were never completed. “That was money they accessed through questionable contracts, including contracts for projects that were never completed. Some contractors received 50 percent down payments and never built the roads. They used that money as if it were their personal wealth. Is that how you run a country? No.”

No Return to Load-Shedding, President Says

Hichilema dismissed claims that Zambia will return to load-shedding after the elections. He said government is expanding electricity generation capacity to meet growing demand, targeting 10,000 megawatts from solar and other non-hydro sources.

Why It Matters

The interview came two days before Zambians vote in Thursday’s general election, at a moment when security agencies and the Electoral Commission of Zambia have been finalising preparations at the National Results Centre in Lusaka. Public reassurance from the Head of State on security and continuity of power supply is aimed partly at markets and investors, who watch pre-election statements from incumbents closely for signs of instability that could affect the kwacha, portfolio flows and business confidence in election week.

On energy, the 10,000 megawatt target signals continuity in Zambia’s diversification away from hydropower dependence, a policy priority since the 2024/2025 drought exposed the vulnerability of Kariba-linked generation to climate shocks. Investors in the power sector will be watching whether this commitment translates into concrete project timelines after the vote.

By Zambian Economist Analyst

Related Reading

• Hichilema Condemns Political Violence, Warns of ‘Full Consequences’ for Offenders
• Hichilema Meets ICGLR Election Observers
• ECZ Launches National Election Results Centre at Mulungushi Ahead of Thursday’s Vote
• Civil Society Deploys Over 600 Election Monitors Nationwide Ahead of Thursday’s Polls

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Former Patriotic Front cabinet minister Dr Dora Siliya has endorsed President Hakainde Hichilema ahead of Zambia’s 13 August general election, arguing that policy continuity would protect recent economic gains and give the country room to pursue industrialisation, investment and jobs.

Speaking on Diamond TV on Monday night, Siliya said she had been persuaded to support the current administration because Zambia had moved past the hardest phase of its economic adjustment. Her endorsement comes as voters prepare to choose a president and other representatives on Thursday.

Why Dora Siliya says continuity matters

Siliya tied her decision to Zambia’s debt restructuring and its engagement with the International Monetary Fund. She argued that a change in economic direction could put at risk the progress made since the change of government in 2021.

“Personally, I would want to see a continuation of this government because the first five years have been very difficult. We know now that working with the IMF, it has become clear that we are over the hill, and we want to see better beyond Thursday,” she said.

Dora Siliya, speaking on Diamond TV

She also credited international goodwill following the 2021 transfer of power with helping Zambia regain support from lenders, creditors and investors.

“I would probably say that I’m persuaded to say I would support the current administration because I think the worst is over, and it was international goodwill after the change of government in 2021 that has brought us here because things would have been worse,” she said.

Dora Siliya, speaking on Diamond TV

The endorsement is politically notable because Siliya served in cabinets formed by the PF, the party that Hichilema defeated in 2021. She said her decision was based on policy rather than political relationships.

What Zambia’s latest economic data shows

There is evidence behind Siliya’s case for stability, although the recovery remains incomplete. The IMF completed the sixth and final review of Zambia’s 38-month Extended Credit Facility in January 2026. In its latest public assessment in May, the Fund said restructuring agreements covered about 94% of the targeted debt. Inflation had fallen to 6.8% in April, within the Bank of Zambia’s 6% to 8% target band, while reserves had risen to the equivalent of 4.4 months of prospective imports.

The same IMF assessment also warned against treating stabilisation as a finished job. It revised projected 2026 growth down to 4.3% and expected inflation to reach 8.5% by year-end as higher fuel prices offset some of the effect of a stronger kwacha. Fiscal pressure had also increased, with the projected primary surplus cut to 1.1% of gross domestic product.

That mixed picture is central to the economic choice in this election. Continuity may reduce uncertainty around debt and budget policy, but any incoming administration will still face unfinished creditor negotiations, pressure on public spending and the need to turn headline stability into incomes and jobs. Read our analysis of what comes after Zambia’s completed IMF programme.

Mining, education and jobs

Siliya called for Zambia to capture more value from mining. She said lower production costs could lift company profits and government revenue. For operators, those costs include power reliability, transport, taxes, financing and the predictability of mining rules. Higher output can widen the tax base, but the public benefit also depends on sound tax administration, transparent agreements and local procurement.

What businesses should watch

Mining suppliers, manufacturers and investors will be watching whether the next government keeps a stable fiscal and regulatory framework while addressing Zambia’s energy constraints. Siliya’s call for industrialisation points to the harder stage of the recovery: using mining demand and export earnings to support Zambian production rather than relying mainly on raw copper exports.

She also backed the continuation of free education and called for higher education to become more affordable. For employers, the question is whether access to education is matched by technical skills that fit mining, energy, agriculture, construction and digital services. The jobs test will be whether investment produces sustained private-sector employment.

A cross-party endorsement in the campaign’s final days

Siliya urged Zambians to vote peacefully and to accept that citizens can make different political choices without hostility. Zambia’s polling date is Thursday, 13 August 2026, as confirmed when Hichilema filed his nomination for a second term.

“Every Zambian has a right to vote. Nobody should be angry with another person because they are not voting like you,” she said.

Dora Siliya, speaking on Diamond TV

What the endorsement means for investors

An endorsement does not settle the economic argument, but Siliya has framed her choice around policy credibility. Investors will judge the result and the next administration by four tests: fiscal discipline, completion of the remaining debt deals, predictable mining and energy policy, and whether private investment produces jobs. Our election market briefing explains the indicators investors are already tracking.

Key takeaways

• Dora Siliya has endorsed Hakainde Hichilema ahead of the 13 August election.
• She cited debt restructuring, the completed IMF programme and the case for economic continuity.
• The latest IMF figures show lower inflation and stronger reserves, but also slower projected growth and fresh fiscal pressure.
• Siliya wants more value from mining, continued free education and more affordable higher education.
• She urged peaceful voting and respect for different political choices.

Do you agree that continuity would protect Zambia’s economic gains, or does the country need a different approach after 13 August? Share your view in the comments.

Related reading

• The Economics of Zambia’s 2026 Election
• What a Second Hichilema Term Would Mean for Zambia’s Economy
• What the Next Government Inherits on 14 August
• The Viral 57% Poll Is Fake: What Zambia’s Real Economic Numbers Say

Primary source: Dora Siliya interview broadcast on Diamond TV on 10 August 2026. Economic context: International Monetary Fund. Photo credit: Dora Siliya.

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By Zambian Economist Analyst | August 10, 2026

Former MMD National Chairman and Minister of Information Stan Kristafor has thrown his weight behind President Hakainde Hichilema and the ruling UPND ahead of the 13 August general election, arguing that the party has already demonstrated it can run the country.

Kristafor, who also served as Member of Parliament for Kitwe, said his decision to campaign for the President rests on the UPND’s track record in office rather than on party loyalty. He argued that the opposition currently has nothing credible to put forward as an alternative, describing the Patriotic Front as effectively spent as a political force.

A defection-era endorsement

Kristafor pointed to the movement of former PF figures into the UPND, most notably Miles Sampa, as evidence that support for the President continues to widen beyond UPND’s traditional base. Cross-party defections of this kind have become a recurring feature of the run-up to this election, and Kristafor framed his own endorsement in similar terms: a MMD-era figure choosing to back the incumbent rather than the parties competing against it.

The pattern fits a broader theme this campaign season, where the opposition’s ability to consolidate around a single alternative narrative has repeatedly come under scrutiny. Zambian Economist has previously examined how the contest has increasingly shaped up as a two-way race between Hichilema and PF/opposition figures, with smaller parties struggling for visibility.

A direct challenge on jobs and the economy

Kristafor directed his sharpest remarks at opposition leaders Brian Mundubile and Makebi Zulu, challenging them to explain concretely how they intend to create jobs and develop the country if elected. He argued that President Hichilema’s background in business and economics equips him to steer national development more effectively than his rivals.

That framing echoes a line of argument UPND figures have leaned on throughout the campaign: that criticism of the government’s economic record has not been matched by opposition parties offering distinct policy alternatives of their own. Zambian Economist reported on a similar argument made by UPND Deputy Spokesperson Elvis Nkandu, who contended that opposition parties have largely adopted UPND programmes rather than proposing new ones.

A call for a peaceful vote

Kristafor also urged Zambians to keep the peace before, during and after the polls, and said all political players should accept the outcome of the election and support whoever is elected to govern. He said political differences should not be allowed to degenerate into violence or conflict, a message that has taken on added weight after a campaign period marked by sporadic unrest and repeated appeals from state and religious institutions for calm.

Why it matters

Endorsements from former rival-party officials carry a particular kind of signal in Zambian politics: they are read less as ideological conversions and more as bets on which side is best placed to deliver stability and continuity after the vote. For businesses and investors watching the election for signs of policy continuity, statements like Kristafor’s add to a picture in which UPND messaging is increasingly built around its record in government rather than fresh promises, while opposition parties face growing pressure to present a concrete economic offer of their own.

Under the shade of a large tree, surrounded by women, young people and other residents dressed in UPND colours, Jacqueline Sabao’s campaign photographs capture the local character of constituency politics.

There is no elaborate stage. Sabao, the incumbent Chikankata Member of Parliament, stands among residents and addresses them directly.

Her Sunday message was equally personal. She asked voters to reflect on the future they want for their families and communities as Zambia approaches the 13 August general election.

“A new week. A shared vision. A brighter future,” she told Chikankata residents.

Sabao thanked residents for the reception she has received during the campaign and asked them to give her another term as their UPND Member of Parliament.

A campaign built around continuity

Sabao is presenting her candidacy as a continuation of the development work undertaken during her current term.

Her message identifies stronger communities, opportunities for young people, support for farmers and public participation as priorities for the next parliamentary term.

The campaign statement does not specify new project budgets, employment targets or agricultural programmes. These details will be important to voters assessing what another term would deliver beyond the broad promise of continuity.

Sabao currently represents Chikankata in the National Assembly. She has participated in parliamentary proceedings and was previously recognised with the Nelly Mutti Outstanding Woman MP Overall Award, according to the National Assembly of Zambia.

Agriculture and youth remain central concerns

Chikankata District has one constituency divided into 14 wards. The district is about 68 kilometres from Lusaka and depends heavily on agriculture and related rural economic activity, according to Chikankata Town Council.

The council’s Constituency Development Fund reporting identifies agriculture as a priority and records youth participation in farming initiatives supported through CDF.

For Sabao, the economic question is how constituency programmes can move beyond one-off grants and create farming businesses capable of reaching dependable markets.

Young people will also want details on skills development, access to finance and the types of businesses that could succeed within Chikankata’s local economy.

What another term would need to answer

Sabao’s call for continued development gives voters a broad direction, but the next step is a measurable constituency programme.

• unfinished projects from the current parliamentary term;
• proposed schools, health facilities, roads and water projects;
• the number of young people targeted for skills and business support;
• agricultural extension, irrigation and market-access plans;
• CDF approval and monitoring processes; and
• how residents in all 14 wards will participate in setting priorities.

Publishing these commitments would allow voters to compare Sabao’s programme with those offered by other Chikankata candidates.

The final days before the vote

Sabao has called for respectful engagement during the remaining campaign period and urged residents to approach the election with hope and unity.

“On 13 August, I humbly ask for your vote as your Member of Parliament for Chikankata Constituency,” she said.

The Electoral Commission of Zambia has set Thursday, 13 August 2026 as polling day. Campaigning is scheduled to close on Wednesday, 12 August, according to the ECZ election timetable.

For Chikankata’s voters, Thursday’s decision will be about whether Sabao’s message of continuity is matched by a sufficiently detailed plan for the constituency’s next five years.

Campaign in pictures

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President Hakainde Hichilema has pledged expanded social programmes and public services for residents of Milenge District in Luapula Province if the United Party for National Development retains office.

In a campaign message to Milenge residents, Hichilema thanked voters for their support and said his administration would pursue additional Social Cash Transfer assistance, Cash for Work opportunities, business support, schools, health facilities and agricultural programmes.

He did not provide Milenge-specific budgets, beneficiary targets or implementation dates for the proposed expansion.

“This Thursday go and vote for UPND so that together we can continue protecting the gains made this far for mother Zambia,” Hichilema said.

The Electoral Commission of Zambia has scheduled the general election for Thursday, 13 August 2026. The official campaign period closes on Wednesday, according to the ECZ election timetable.

Social-protection spending in 2026

Zambia’s 2026 economic programme targets about 1.5 million Social Cash Transfer beneficiaries, with regular payments maintained at K400 per month, according to the government’s commitments reported by the International Monetary Fund.

The Cash for Work programme was allocated K1 billion for 2026, with participating vulnerable households expected to receive K600 per month in exchange for short-term public works.

A UNICEF analysis found that the Cash for Work allocation was reduced from K2 billion in 2025 to K1 billion in 2026. It also raised concerns about uneven implementation, unclear beneficiary targets and the absence of the programme from the government’s 2027 and 2028 medium-term projections.

Hichilema’s Milenge message did not explain whether the promised expansion would require additional funding beyond the approved 2026 budget.

Development promises await local targets

The commitments on schools, health facilities, business opportunities and agricultural support were not accompanied by project lists or district-level targets.

Details would be needed to assess how many facilities are proposed, where they would be built and whether the projects are already included in national or Constituency Development Fund plans.

Milenge voters will cast ballots for the presidency, National Assembly and local-government positions on Thursday.

By Zambian Economist Analyst | August 7, 2026

UPND Deputy Spokesperson Elvis Nkandu has confirmed that opposition political parties exist in Zambia, while arguing that none of them has put forward policies distinct from those already being implemented by the UPND government.

Speaking on Phoenix FM’s Let the People Talk programme, Mr Nkandu pushed back on the increasingly common claim that ordinary Zambians, rather than registered political parties, form the country’s real opposition. He said that framing does not hold up because the public has no single leader speaking on its behalf, and that the electorate’s constitutional role is to choose a government, not to act as one.

The “biggest opposition” debate

The idea that Zambians themselves are the country’s most effective check on government has become a recurring line in political commentary, often invoked when formal opposition parties are seen as struggling to gain traction. Mr Nkandu’s rejection of that framing puts him at odds with that narrative, and shifts the argument back onto the performance of registered opposition parties rather than public sentiment.

Policy continuity, not policy alternatives

Mr Nkandu’s central claim is one of continuity rather than contest. He said opposition parties have largely adopted and promised to extend programmes the UPND administration introduced, citing free education and the social cash transfer scheme as examples. In his view, that pattern means the opposition’s role has effectively narrowed to offering commentary on government initiatives rather than presenting a distinct policy agenda, and he suggested opposition parties would serve the country better through advisory engagement with government than through electoral contest.

That is a notable position for a governing party spokesperson to take publicly less than a month from the polls, since it frames the opposition’s function in advisory rather than competitive terms. Opposition parties would likely dispute the characterisation, and voters will ultimately judge policy platforms for themselves at the ballot box. It also follows a wider pattern this campaign season, as explored in our analysis of the two-horse race between Hichilema and Mundubile.

On the cost of living

Mr Nkandu also addressed the persistence of high commodity prices, attributing it to businesses maintaining elevated prices despite improvements in headline economic indicators. That argument separates macroeconomic performance from what households actually pay at the till, a distinction The Zambian Economist has tracked through the year, including Zambia’s extreme poverty rate near 48% and unemployment holding at 10.3% even as other indicators have strengthened.

Business and investor implications

For businesses, the government’s framing signals continued political attention on pricing behaviour, which could translate into closer scrutiny or public pressure on sectors seen as slow to pass on macroeconomic gains to consumers. For investors, the exchange is a reminder that Zambia’s cost-of-living debate is likely to remain a live political issue through the election period, regardless of which party is in government afterward. See also our analysis of what a second Hichilema term would mean for the economy.

Public implications

For voters, the exchange sharpens a question likely to recur through the campaign: whether opposition parties are offering genuinely different economic direction, or refinements of an existing one. How opposition parties respond, and whether it shifts public perception of the “real opposition” debate, is likely to be tested repeatedly over the coming weeks. The tone of that contest matters too, as we noted when State House raised concerns over derogatory campaign language.

Related: Mundubile’s BBC interview puts his economic vision on the international stage.

Read more: Former MMD Chairman Stan Kristafor Endorses Hichilema Ahead of 2026 Polls.

Polls and investors alike expect President Hakainde Hichilema to win a second term on 13 August, facing a fragmented opposition led by first-time contender Brian Mundubile. Before the result is in, it is worth asking a narrower question than who wins: what would five more years of this economic programme actually deliver, and where would it struggle?

The record he would be extending

When Hichilema took office in August 2021, Zambia had defaulted on its Eurobonds, inflation stood at 24.4%, and public debt had reached roughly 130% of GDP. Foreign exchange reserves covered barely two months of imports. The scale of that inheritance is the baseline against which any second-term claim has to be measured.

Since then, roughly 80% of external debt has been restructured, reserves have rebuilt to around $6.5 billion, and inflation fell as low as 6.5% in June this year, its lowest point in more than eight years. None of that happened by accident. It came from a specific policy choice: prioritising IMF-backed fiscal discipline over the populist spending a country in Zambia’s position is often tempted toward.

That choice is also where the criticism starts. Inflation did not fall in a straight line, it spiked to 16.7% in December 2024 on currency weakness and drought, a reminder that the stabilisation is real but not yet shock-proof. And tax revenue still sits at just 16.8% of GDP, barely above the sub-Saharan African average, which means the fiscal space to absorb the next shock without new borrowing remains thin.

What continuity actually buys investors

For copper investors, a second term is not really about Hichilema personally, it is about not having to reprice Zambia’s mining fiscal regime. Government has said it does not intend to change mining tax rates, and the local-content rules under Statutory Instrument 68 are already being implemented rather than debated. Vedanta, Barrick and First Quantum are each mid-expansion. A change in direction now would be more disruptive to the 3-million-tonne copper ambition than a change in personnel.

That continuity premium is real, but it is not unconditional. Zambia’s previous IMF programme ended in January, and a handful of commercial creditors, Afreximbank and TDB among them, are still contesting their treatment in the restructuring. A second term would need to close that file, not just manage it, for the continuity story to hold past the next credit cycle.

The gap the numbers do not close

The uncomfortable part of this record is the one that shows up least in investor briefings: extreme poverty sat at 48% in 2025, barely down from 49% the year before, even as GDP per capita growth accelerated. Unemployment fell to 10.3%, but a falling unemployment rate next to a flat poverty rate usually means people are finding work that does not pay enough to move them off the line.

This is the pattern behind the “Bally will fix it” slogan that carried Hichilema to power in 2021 running up against its own results. The macro turnaround is not in serious dispute. Whether it has reached households as fast as the debt spreadsheets suggest is the argument the opposition has built its campaign around, and it is not an unreasonable one.

What a second term would need to prove

Three things separate a second term that consolidates the recovery from one that stalls on it.

Power supply. Mining expansion and macro stability both run into the same constraint: a hydro-dependent grid that drought keeps exposing. Industry estimates put the shortfall at close to 2,000MW against expansion targets. This is now as much a fiscal question as an engineering one, since load-shedding costs businesses money that shows up later as weaker tax receipts.

Revenue diversification. A tax base stuck near 17% of GDP, and an economy still generating 70% of export earnings from one metal, is not a resilient one. A second term’s credibility on fiscal discipline will depend on whether it can widen the base rather than simply holding spending down.

Translating growth into income. Cash transfers and CDF expansion, from roughly K1.8 million to K36 million per constituency, are the tools currently deployed. Whether they are sized and targeted well enough to move the poverty number, not just the growth number, is the test that actually decides how this term is remembered.

The bottom line

A second Hichilema term, if it materialises as expected, would extend a genuinely rare thing on this continent: five more years of a government that chose fiscal discipline over short-term political comfort, twice. That is worth taking seriously as an achievement. It is also worth being precise about what it has not yet delivered. Investors have their answer already. Zambian households casting a ballot on 13 August are still waiting for theirs.

Key takeaways

• Debt restructuring and disinflation since 2021 are real and measurable achievements, not spin
• Continuity matters most to copper-sector investors already committed to expansion plans
• Poverty and unemployment data show the recovery has not yet reached households at the same pace as the macro numbers
• Power supply and tax-base diversification are the structural risks that would define a second term more than campaign rhetoric will

By Zambian Economist Analyst

Related: UPND’s Elvis Nkandu on why the opposition has offered no alternative policies.

Also read: Kelvin Chisanga: Why Zambia’s election is a major economic event.

With seven days left before Zambia votes on 13 August, the presidential contest has narrowed to two men making opposite arguments about the same economy: President Hakainde Hichilema, asking to be judged on falling inflation and rebuilt reserves, and Tonse Alliance leader Brian Mundubile, asking to be judged on what those numbers have not yet fixed.

By Zambian Economist Analyst

Fourteen names appear on the presidential ballot on 13 August, but the contest has effectively been between two men for months. President Hakainde Hichilema, 64, is seeking a second term on the strength of a macroeconomic turnaround. Brian Mundubile, 55, a lawyer and sitting MP before the election was called, has united a fractured opposition under the Tonse Alliance banner and is asking voters to judge that turnaround by what has reached their kitchens, not what has reached the reserve figures.

Neither man is new to Zambian politics, but neither has faced the other at the ballot box before. This is the test.

The Incumbent’s Case

Hichilema took office on 24 August 2021 after unseating the late Edgar Lungu, inheriting an economy that had defaulted on its sovereign debt the previous year. Five years on, his campaign rests on a specific set of figures. Annual inflation, which stood near 24% when he took office, had fallen to 6.5% by June 2026, the lowest reading in more than eight years. Foreign exchange reserves have climbed to roughly $6.5 billion, and the government points to about $12 billion in new mining investment as evidence that debt restructuring and policy reform have restored investor confidence in Africa’s second-largest copper producer.

Loadshedding, a recurring grievance through much of his first term, eased in the months before the election, though the improvement is recent enough that the opposition has made a point of asking whether it will hold. Hichilema has kept Mutale Nalumango as his running mate and became the first candidate this cycle to campaign in person in all ten provinces, a tour his campaign has since narrowed into a more targeted push through specific swing constituencies as the vote nears.

His own political history includes a stretch in detention: arrested and charged with treason in April 2017 under the Lungu government, a case widely seen at the time as politically motivated, before his release and the charge’s withdrawal four months later. That episode still surfaces in how his supporters frame his position today, as a leader who survived the system he now runs.

The Challenger’s Case

Mundubile’s route to the ballot has been shorter and less conventional. The Tonse Alliance formed in November 2024 with the explicit goal of removing the UPND from office, and it originally rallied around Lungu himself as chairperson and presidential candidate. Following Lungu’s death in South Africa in June 2025 and the bitter dispute that followed over his burial, an internal convention on 28 January 2026 chose Mundubile, until then a Patriotic Front-aligned parliamentarian, as the alliance’s standard-bearer instead. He had never previously run for president.

His argument to voters is not that the government’s numbers are false, but that they are beside the point. At the Tonse Alliance manifesto launch in April, he told supporters the country needed an economy built on jobs and dignity rather than statistics and graphs, and has since accused the government of speaking in what he calls “big English” while households go hungry. His running mate is Makebi Zulu.

The Tonse manifesto is the most interventionist economic document any opposition alliance has put forward this cycle. Its central pledges include mobilising $12 billion for solar, wind and biomass generation to close the electricity deficit; creating more than 300,000 jobs within three years through twelve government-backed farming blocks aimed at value-added agriculture; and equipping marketeers nationally with an excavator and a vehicle each to expand their trading capacity. Mundubile has also pledged to repeal the 2025 cybercrime law and has promised a government with representation drawn equally from all ten provinces.

Where the Arguments Actually Clash

The Vulnerabilities Voters Are Weighing

Hichilema’s weak point is the gap between the dashboard and the doorstep. Inflation at 6.5% and $6.5 billion in reserves are real numbers, but Zambian households have told pollsters and reporters that the relief has been slow to show up in prices at the market. The government has also had to answer accusations, which it denies, that a 2025 cybercrime law and December 2025 constitutional amendments enlarging Parliament have made it harder for the opposition to organise and campaign freely.

Mundubile’s weak point is arithmetic. Independent commentary on the Tonse manifesto, including from analysts who broadly welcomed its ambition, has questioned whether a $12 billion energy programme and job creation on the scale promised can be financed and delivered inside the timelines given, since job creation at that volume typically requires sustained above-trend growth and large-scale private investment rather than public spending alone. He also carries the weight of a coalition assembled quickly around a leader other than the one it was originally built for, and enters the race with a fraction of incumbency’s institutional and financial reach; he has appealed publicly for voluntary contributions to fund the final stretch of campaigning.

What Investors and Businesses Are Watching

For business and investors, the immediate question is less about the winner than about continuity. A Hichilema win would be read as a vote for policy continuity: the existing debt restructuring framework, the mining tax and investment regime that has drawn in roughly $12 billion in new commitments, and the exchange rate stability the kwacha has enjoyed through the recovery. A Mundubile win would raise the more open question of how quickly, and how, an interventionist manifesto built around large state-backed programmes would be reconciled with a debt position still being rebuilt from a 2020 default.

Neither outcome is being priced with certainty. Pre-candidacy polling from late 2025, before Mundubile had even entered the race, put Hichilema’s support at 55%, but that data predates the very consolidation of the opposition that has made this a genuine two-horse contest, and both camps are treating the final week as live.

The Numbers That Could Decide It

Key Takeaways

• The election has become a referendum on whether Zambia’s macroeconomic recovery, falling inflation, rebuilt reserves and returning mining investment, has been felt by ordinary households.
• Hichilema is running on continuity and a five-year record; Mundubile is running on the argument that the record has not reached the people who need it most.
• The Tonse Alliance’s manifesto is the most interventionist opposition economic programme this cycle, and its financing has drawn scrutiny alongside its ambition.
• Businesses and investors are watching for policy continuity risk more than for the outcome itself, given Zambia’s still-recovering debt position.
• Both campaigns enter the final week claiming momentum; only the 13 August count will settle it.

Related Reading

• Ballot Papers Arrive in Livingstone Ahead of August Polls
• Hichilema Condemns Political Violence, Warns of “Full Consequences” for Offenders
• Judicial Independence Key to Fair Election Outcomes, Says Chief Justice Malila
• Hichilema Warns Mopani Copper Mines Over Unpaid Pensioner Benefits
• ZAF Prays for Peaceful Elections Ahead of Zambia’s 2026 Vote
• Chitambo’s 13 August Vote: Chembe Kunda Runs Independent
• Zambia’s Inflation Is Back in Target. Why Relief May Still Feel Slow

Read also: UPND’s Elvis Nkandu says the opposition has no alternative policies.

Related: The Viral 57% Poll Is Fake: What Zambia’s Real Economic Numbers Say

Read more: Former MMD Chairman Stan Kristafor Endorses Hichilema Ahead of 2026 Polls.

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President Hakainde Hichilema has ordered Mopani Copper Mines to resolve outstanding pensioner and worker payments “with immediate effect,” warning that government will step in if the company fails to act.

Addressing residents of Mufulira on the Copperbelt, President Hichilema said unresolved dues at Mopani had gone on long enough. He directed the mining company to award more contracts to Zambian firms, particularly youth-owned businesses, and said his government had created one million jobs over the past four years and eleven months, including positions in the mining sector.

The President used the same rally, held five days before Zambia’s 13 August general election, to pledge that a re-elected UPND government would complete the Mufulira-Ndola road, the Mufulira-Mokambo road, Mufulira District Hospital and the Kamuchanga market. He said government was aware of the district’s water challenges and would address them.

What “outstanding issues” means at Mopani

Neither the President nor Mopani put a figure on what is owed to pensioners and workers, and the company had not issued a public response to the directive at the time of writing. Pension arrears tied to Mopani’s operations are not new on the Copperbelt: in 2023, Kitwe City Council cleared benefits owed to 53 retirees only after Mopani settled K87.4 million it owed the local authority, a reminder of how the mine’s payment obligations can back up through several layers before reaching individual pensioners.

Mopani is 51% owned by the UAE’s International Resources Holding (IRH), which bought its stake for $1.1 billion in 2024, with ZCCM Investments Holdings, the state’s mining investment vehicle, holding the remaining 49%. The company has since committed roughly $300 million to lifting output at its Mufulira operations, and a safety-related suspension at the mine earlier this year, following two worker deaths, was lifted within weeks once new underground tracking systems were installed. A pensioner dispute breaking during an election campaign puts a different kind of pressure on a company whose growth plans depend on staying in government’s good graces.

Testing the one-million-jobs claim

President Hichilema’s jobs figure is a government estimate, not one Zambian Economist could independently verify against a single published dataset at the time of writing. The Zambia Statistics Agency’s labour force releases and the Chamber of Mines’ annual reports are the two sources that would ordinarily be checked against a claim of this size, and neither has yet published a count that matches it directly. What is documented is that national copper output rose to roughly 890,000 tonnes in 2025, up 8% on the year before, with government targeting 3 million tonnes annually by 2031. Expansion at that scale requires more labour, but an expansion plan and a delivered jobs count are not the same thing, and mining is only one slice of a claim that spans the whole economy.

Infrastructure pledges: promises, not budget lines

The road, hospital and market commitments made in Mufulira share one feature: none came with a costed budget line, a funding source or a completion date. That is consistent with how Zambian Economist has assessed similar campaign-season pledges elsewhere this cycle, including the harbour and border post commitments made in Shangombo. The test for Mufulira residents will be whether these appear as costed items in a future national budget rather than remain rally announcements.

Business, investor and policy implications

For business

The directive to award more contracts to Zambian companies, particularly youth-owned firms, signals an intent to widen local subcontracting on the Copperbelt. Businesses positioning for mine-services work should treat this as a cue to register interest with Mopani’s procurement office rather than a guaranteed pipeline, since no quota or timeline was announced.

For investors

A public presidential warning aimed at a majority foreign-owned strategic asset, five days before a national election, is a signal markets will read for what it says about the state’s willingness to intervene in commercial disputes. IRH’s investment case for Mopani rests on steady output growth at Mufulira; unresolved labour obligations are a cost and reputational risk sitting alongside that growth story, one this Zambian Economist analysis of copper’s job-creation potential flagged as a recurring tension in the sector.

For policy

The episode tests how government balances two roles at once: minority shareholder in Mopani through ZCCM-IH, and regulator with the power to intervene if pensioner obligations go unmet. How that tension is resolved after 13 August, regardless of who wins, will matter more to Copperbelt households than the rally itself. It also sits inside the wider question this campaign has raised about the affordability of manifesto pledges, one Zambian Economist has tracked as parties compete on promises heading into 13 August.

Key takeaways

• President Hichilema has given Mopani Copper Mines an ultimatum to resolve pensioner and worker payment issues, with a threat of government intervention if it does not.
• No figure for the amount owed, and no company response, had been published at the time of writing.
• The one-million-jobs claim covering nearly five years of UPND government is a government estimate not yet matched by an independently published dataset.
• Road, hospital and market pledges for Mufulira carry no disclosed budget or timeline; the test will be whether they appear in a future national budget.

For a full side-by-side of both campaigns, see our analysis comparing Hichilema’s record with Mundubile’s Tonse Alliance platform.

Related: How the Emoluments Commission is preparing Copperbelt stakeholders for the Pension Laws of 2026.

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It has been a difficult few days trying to pen a tribute befitting Dr. Canisius Banda since I learnt of his passing on 31st July 2026.

I first came into close contact with Dr. Banda in 2013 when he assumed the position of Vice President (Politics) of the United Party for National Development (UPND). At the time, I was an active member of the UPND Lusaka Central Constituency Youth Wing. However, that was merely our first physical meeting. In truth, I had met Dr. Banda years earlier through his weekly Intellectual Interface column in The Post newspaper. I looked forward to reading his articles every week. He was exceptionally well-read, a brilliant thinker, and an outstanding writer.

Little did I know then that Dr. Banda would later play such a significant role in both my political journey and my personal life. What stood out most about him was his humility. Despite the nearly thirty-year age difference between us, he insisted that I address him simply as “Canisius.”

“Imanga, don’t call me Veep or Doc. Just call me Canisius,” he remarked during one of our encounters.

Sometime in early 2015, on an early morning, he gave me a phone call and asked me to meet him at Cresta Golfview Hotel.

“I see you are consistent at party meetings,” he said. “Pilgrim, I see things in you that perhaps you do not yet see yourself. You are a luminary, and I implore you to faithfully pursue your desire for elective office. But first, get married and build your family. Let us meet here weekly for these discussions. I want to be one of your mentors.”

Those words remain etched in my memory.

Not long afterwards, Dr. Canisius Banda honoured my wife and me by accepting to be the Guest of Honour at our wedding, a gesture that spoke volumes about the kind of man he was.

To cut a long story short, Dr. Banda and I developed a friendship that endured well beyond our eventual political divergence. Whenever we could not find time to meet, we would spend hours on the phone discussing politics, leadership, faith, history, and life itself.

He was a humble intellectual giant, wise, engaging, gracious, and always willing to invest in younger people. He possessed a rare gift with words. I still remember when his colleague, Vice President (Administration) Richard Kapita, resigned. Canisius wrote one of his characteristically brilliant articles titled “Kapita Apita.” It reflected the wit, creativity, and sharp intellect that made his writing so memorable.

There is so much more that could be said about Canisius. He was a family-centred man. He talked highly of his son, Miles. His life touched many, and his influence extended far beyond the political arena. I count myself fortunate to have known him not merely as a leader, but as a mentor, a friend, and someone who genuinely believed in my potential long before many others did.

Go well, Canisius. Go well, Dr. Banda. May your soul rest in eternal peace.

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