By The Zambian Economist Analyst

Zambia’s Treasury has set itself a measurable test for the United Arab Emirates trip: the US$2.14 billion in memoranda signed in Abu Dhabi will count only when they become financed projects that produce, export and hire. That was the message from Finance and National Planning Minister Dr Situmbeko Musokotwane after he joined other government officials in welcoming President Hakainde Hichilema home on Thursday afternoon.

“For us in the economic sector, the next task is to convert these agreements and investor commitments into bankable projects, increased production, stronger exports, expanding businesses, more jobs, and higher incomes for our people,” Dr Musokotwane said in a statement. The Grow Zambia Agenda, he added, should “ultimately be measured by the opportunities it creates and the tangible improvements it delivers in the lives of ordinary Zambians.”

It is an unusually specific yardstick for a welcome-home message, and it puts the burden of proof on the ministries he leads alongside the Zambia Development Agency and line ministries in mining, energy and agriculture.

What came back from Abu Dhabi?

The President held talks with UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan at the Presidential Palace on 29 September, addressed a Zambia-UAE business and investment forum, met Emirati investors and spoke to Zambians living in the Gulf state. We covered his arrival and the visit programme, his meeting with Mopani co-owner IRH and the bilateral talks as they happened.

Dr Musokotwane listed the sectors the engagements covered: energy, mining and mineral value addition, agriculture, infrastructure, transport and logistics, healthcare and the digital economy. Lusaka Times reported on the President’s return that the US$2.14 billion figure could rise, with further investments expected to be finalised after the trip. Neither government has yet published a project-by-project breakdown of the memoranda.

Why is an MoU not yet an investment?

A memorandum of understanding records that two parties intend to do business. It rarely commits money, sets a price or fixes a construction date. Between the signature and a working mine, farm or power plant sit feasibility studies, environmental approvals, land, licences, offtake or power purchase agreements, and finally the loan and equity documents that bring a project to financial close.

Each step can take months, and some take years. Energy projects need a buyer for the power, which in Zambia usually means ZESCO, and a tariff that the Energy Regulation Board will approve. Mining projects need licences from the Ministry of Mines and, from 2026, plans that meet the local content rules the President raised with IRH in Abu Dhabi. Agriculture projects need secure land and water rights.

Dr Musokotwane’s phrase “bankable projects” is the right test. A project is bankable when lenders will finance it: the revenue is predictable, the risks are allocated and the paperwork is complete. Until then, the US$2.14 billion is a pipeline, not a capital inflow.

How will Zambians know if the deals are working?

The headline number will not tell you. Four indicators will:

• Financial close. How many of the memoranda turn into signed financing agreements within 12 to 24 months, and for how much.
• Foreign direct investment inflows. The Bank of Zambia’s balance of payments data will show whether Emirati capital actually arrives.
• Exports. Zambia Statistics Agency trade figures will show whether new production reaches regional and Gulf markets, beyond copper and gold.
• Formal jobs. Employment registered with NAPSA and the Ministry of Labour in the sectors named in the agreements.

Government could make that tracking easier by publishing the list of signed memoranda, with the counterpart, sector and indicative value of each, and reporting progress against it every quarter. The Zambia Development Agency already records investment pledges; a public tracker would let investors, lenders and citizens see which projects are moving.

The trade figure that does not match

There is a smaller story inside the bigger one. Lusaka Times noted during the visit that UAE records show higher imports from Zambia than Zambia reports as exports to the UAE, and that gold accounts for most of the gap. Mismatched trade data between two partners is common, often because of timing, valuation or goods routed through third countries. But where gold is involved, the difference can also point to metal leaving Zambia outside the formal, taxed channel.

A CEPA, or any closer customs cooperation that comes with it, gives both governments a reason to reconcile those figures. For the Treasury, that matters: gold that is recorded is gold that pays royalties and brings foreign exchange through the banking system.

What it means for business, investors and households

For Zambian businesses

The sectors in the memoranda are where supply contracts will appear first: construction, transport and logistics, engineering services, agro-processing and healthcare supplies. Under the local content law, large investors in mining in particular must buy a rising share of goods and services from Zambian-owned firms. Companies that are registered, compliant and visible will be better placed when procurement starts.

For investors

The UAE is now one of Zambia’s larger capital partners, and the Mopani transaction gives Abu Dhabi a direct stake in the Copperbelt’s performance. The questions to watch are whether the CEPA is concluded and on what terms, and whether the policy stability Dr Musokotwane has stressed since his reappointment holds through the 2027 budget cycle.

For households

Nothing changes in a household budget because an MoU was signed. Change comes when a project hires workers, buys from local suppliers and pays taxes. That is the measure the minister set, and it is the one this publication will apply as the agreements move, or fail to move, over the next two years.

The bottom line

The Abu Dhabi trip delivered intent worth US$2.14 billion and kept trade negotiations alive. Whether it delivers growth depends on work that starts now in Lusaka: project preparation, approvals, financing and honest reporting of what reaches financial close. Dr Musokotwane closed his statement on that point: “The work of turning these opportunities into results continues.”

More on Zambia’s economic diplomacy: Economic Diplomacy and Zambia in the Global Economy (hub). Related: Hichilema Tours Zayed National Museum, Points to UAE’s Lesson; Musokotwane Pivots Zambia Toward Export-Led Growth; Mapping the Copper FDI Pipeline; Beyond Copper: How Economic Diplomacy Can Drive Diversification; Hichilema’s Second Term: What It Means for Zambia’s Economy.

Supplying the sectors in these agreements? List your business in The Zambian Economist Directory so investors and procurement teams can find you. Get the weekly economic briefing in your inbox: subscribe to The Ledger.

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By The Zambian Economist Analyst

Zambia has asked the United Arab Emirates to become one of the main financiers of its growth plan, and the UAE has signalled it is willing to listen. President Hakainde Hichilema met Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, President of the UAE and Ruler of Abu Dhabi, at the Presidential Palace in Abu Dhabi on the afternoon of 29 September 2026. The talks focused on deepening bilateral ties, and Hichilema described the UAE as “a strategic partner as we implement the Grow Zambia Agenda.”

The trip is Hichilema’s first abroad since he won a second term in August. Picking Abu Dhabi for that slot says something about where State House expects capital to come from over the next five years. We covered his arrival and the visit programme and his meeting with Mopani co-owner IRH separately.

What the President said

In a statement posted on his official Facebook page, Hichilema noted that the two countries have “continued to strengthen their relations and cooperation, with both countries opening diplomatic missions in each other’s capitals.” He said the discussions “focused on deepening these bilateral ties for the mutual benefit of our people.”

He also used the meeting to convey condolences to Sheikh Mohamed and the people of the UAE on the passing of Sheikh Ahmed bin Rashid Al Maktoum. Sheikh Ahmed, a brother of UAE Vice President and Ruler of Dubai Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, died on 21 September aged 76. Dubai declared ten days of mourning.

Gulf News reported that Crown Prince Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan and several UAE ministers attended the talks, and that both leaders expressed hope that a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement would mark a step forward in economic relations once finalised.

From embassies to a trade deal

The relationship has moved quickly. Zambia opened its embassy in Abu Dhabi in 2023, and Zambia Monitor reports that the UAE posted its first resident ambassador to Lusaka this month. Trade has grown faster than the diplomacy. Non-oil trade reached US$3.4 billion in 2025, a 64.5% increase on 2024, according to figures cited when UAE Minister of Foreign Trade Thani bin Ahmed Al Zeyoudi met Hichilema in February.

The largest single Emirati bet in Zambia is already in the ground. Abu Dhabi-backed International Resources Holding has put about US$1.1 billion into Mopani Copper Mines, Lusaka Times reports, after taking a controlling stake in 2024.

Why power sits at the centre of the pitch

Zambia’s target of three million tonnes of copper a year will need roughly 8,000 megawatts of electricity, Hichilema told investors at the forum, according to Lusaka Times. The country is still recovering from the 2024 drought that cut hydropower output at Kariba. To close that gap, the government offered independent power producers long-term power purchase agreements of 20 to 25 years.

Emirati renewable energy developers such as Masdar are already active in several African markets, so the offer lands with a receptive audience. Long contracts give developers revenue certainty. They also commit ZESCO to paying for decades, which matters for a utility whose finances remain under strain.

What does US$2.14 billion in MoUs actually mean?

An MoU is a statement of intent. It carries no binding obligation to invest. Zambia has signed large headline figures at investment forums before, and the share that reaches financial close has often been much smaller. The useful question for the months ahead is not the size of the pledge but the number of projects that secure land, licences, power connections and funding.

Three things will show whether this visit delivers:

• A signed CEPA, with a published schedule of tariff and services commitments that Zambian exporters can use.
• Named projects with dates, especially in energy and agro-processing, where the forum MoUs were concentrated.
• Export growth, not only imports. A headline trade figure says little about who gains. A deal that lifts Zambian value-added exports, rather than raw minerals or new import lines, would do more for jobs at home.

What it means for business and households

For businesses, a CEPA could cut tariffs and paperwork on goods traded with the UAE and open Emirati markets to Zambian agricultural and processed products. For households, the link is electricity. New generation that comes online under long-term contracts would reduce load-shedding, though tariffs would need to reflect the cost of that power.

For policymakers, the visit adds weight to a shift the Ministry of Finance has signalled since Situmbeko Musokotwane’s reappointment: a move toward export-led growth backed by private and foreign capital rather than public borrowing.

What happens next

The immediate milestone is the CEPA. Both governments say they want it concluded, but no signing date has been announced. The Zambian Economist will track which of the forum MoUs move to binding agreements and report on them as details are published.

Frequently asked questions

Why did President Hichilema visit the UAE?

To deepen bilateral ties and attract investment for the Grow Zambia Agenda. He met UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan in Abu Dhabi on 29 September 2026 and attended a Zambia-UAE business forum.

How much trade is there between Zambia and the UAE?

Non-oil trade was US$3.4 billion in 2025, up 64.5% from 2024, according to figures cited by the UAE Ministry of Foreign Trade.

What is the Zambia-UAE CEPA?

A Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement is a trade and investment deal covering tariffs, services and investment flows. Zambia and the UAE are negotiating one, and both leaders said they hope to conclude it.

Related coverage

• Hichilema Arrives in Abu Dhabi as Zambia Presses the UAE for Investment and a Trade Deal
• Hichilema Presses Mopani Co-Owner IRH on Copper Output and Local Content in Abu Dhabi
• Zambia After the Oath: The Economic and Diplomatic Tests of Hichilema’s Second Term
• Musokotwane Pivots Zambia Toward Export-Led Growth as Jobs and Investment Take Centre Stage
• Hichilema Swears In Four Ministers: Haimbe Returns at Foreign Affairs, Musokotwane Retained at Finance
• Economic Diplomacy and Zambia in the Global Economy (hub)

Further reading elsewhere

• Lusaka Times: HH seals US$2.14 billion in pledges as Abu Dhabi opens its doors to Zambia
• Gulf News: UAE President and President of Zambia discuss growth of bilateral ties
• Zambia Monitor: Hichilema heads to UAE on investment drive
• SolarQuarter: UAE and Zambia talks on renewable energy and trade
• National Assembly of Zambia: Zambia and United Arab Emirates, a growing economic alliance

Is your business looking at the Gulf market? List it in the Zambian Economist Business Directory or submit an analysis.

Related: “I Didn’t Go to the Hospital, I Was Working”: Hichilema Dismisses Health Rumours on Return From Abu Dhabi.

Related: Hichilema Returns From Abu Dhabi as Musokotwane Sets the Real Test for US$2.14bn UAE Deals.

Related: Lobito Corridor Talks Open in Lusaka With a US$28 Billion Investment Pipeline on the Table.

WARNING! All rights reserved. This material and all other digital content on this website may not be reproduced, published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed, in whole or in part, without the prior express permission of The Zambian Economist. Where permission is granted, the content must be clearly credited to “The Zambian Economist,” with “www.zambianeconomist.com” prominently displayed.

WhatsApp: +260775574228 | Email: info@zambianeconomist.com
© 2026 The Zambian Economist.

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