Zambia’s Vote Count Enters a Tense Third Day, With ECZ Still the Only Verified Source

Both leading camps say the numbers favour them. The Electoral Commission of Zambia says neither claim is official yet, and has asked Zambians to wait for its verified results.

Three days after polls closed on 13 August, Zambia does not yet have an official presidential result. The Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ) briefly suspended counting and the announcement of results after reports of violence targeting polling staff and the theft of marked ballots from ballot boxes, invoking Section 67(3) of the Electoral Process Act. It lifted that suspension on 14 August, with Chairperson Mwangala Zaloumis telling journalists the first set of official results would follow at 22:00 that evening, and warning candidates that declaring themselves winner ahead of ECZ is a criminal offence.

Two claims, no declaration

National Reconciliation Party for Unity and Prosperity leader Brian Mundubile says his party’s own parallel voter tabulation, built from figures its agents collected at polling stations and totalling centres, shows him winning the presidency. He has asked ECZ to publish results polling station by polling station and constituency by constituency so every figure can be checked against the original Gen 20 forms, and to preserve ballot boxes and maintain chain of custody. His party has also alleged irregularities in places including Mufulira, Chawama and Matero, and in North-Western Province, where it claims some officials were told to stop issuing Gen 20 forms.

President Hakainde Hichilema has not made a competing declaration. He has described the results reaching his camp as encouraging and has asked Zambians to stay calm while the count continues.

ECZ has not confirmed either camp’s figures. Chief Electoral Officer Brown Kasaro has said constituency results must arrive with the prescribed supporting documents before they are entered into the Commission’s results management system, and that any discrepancy sends a constituency’s figures back for verification rather than straight onto the official tally.

What’s circulating versus what’s confirmed

Since ECZ’s 22:00 window on 14 August passed, constituency-level figures have been circulating widely, on WhatsApp, on newsroom live blogs, and from party agents at tally centres, for constituencies across Central, Copperbelt, Eastern, Lusaka, Northern, North-Western and Western provinces. Some of these figures may be accurate at the polling-station or constituency level; others cannot be traced to a clear source at all. Two electoral officers in Monze have already been arrested over an attempt to alter results in one presidential race, a reminder of why ECZ verifies supporting documents before entering any figure into its official count. The Zambian Economist is not treating unverified constituency figures as confirmed ECZ results, and would encourage readers to check any number against ECZ’s official channels before sharing it further.

What happens next

ECZ has committed to transmitting and releasing results within 72 hours of the close of polling, which puts the deadline for a full national picture in the window of 16 to 17 August. Under Zambia’s electoral law, a presidential candidate needs more than 50% of the valid vote to win outright; short of that, the law provides for a runoff.

Business and policy implications

An election this closely contested carries its own economic weight. A protracted or disputed count tends to weigh on the kwacha and on investor sentiment until a result is confirmed and accepted, and businesses planning around the outcome, from mining houses to SMEs, are effectively on hold until ECZ closes the count. The Zambian Economist will update this article, and publish follow-on analysis of the economic implications, once ECZ releases verified results.

Key takeaways

• ECZ has not yet declared a winner; its own 72-hour window points to 16 to 17 August for a full result
• Mundubile claims victory on his party’s parallel tabulation; Hichilema has not made a competing claim
• ECZ warned candidates that declaring victory ahead of its own announcement is a criminal offence
• Constituency figures are circulating from multiple channels; treat them as provisional until ECZ confirms them on its official platform

The Zambian Economist Analyst

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