Key takeaways
- Zambia is ready to supply part of its maize surplus to Kenya at short notice once volumes and terms are finalised, according to Deputy Secretary to the Cabinet for Finance and Economic Development Dr Siazongo Siakalenge.
- The country holds 5.1 million tonnes from this year’s harvest plus more than 1.6 million tonnes carried over from last season.
- Kenya’s Baita Trading Limited says it is ready to buy 10.8 million 90-kilogramme bags immediately, roughly 970,000 tonnes, with a further three million bags to follow.
- Kenya has formally declared a national requirement of 25 million bags, about 2.2 million tonnes.
- A deal of this size would bring export earnings and support the kwacha, but it will test Zambia’s food-security safeguards and export permit system.
Kenya wants Zambian maize, and a Kenyan grain trader says it is ready to pay for it now. Deputy Secretary to the Cabinet for Finance and Economic Development Dr Siazongo Siakalenge told a visiting delegation from Baita Trading Limited that Zambia can supply part of its surplus at short notice, once the required volumes and terms of reference are finalised.
The numbers on the table are large. Baita’s delegation leader, Martin Kiroti, said his firm is prepared to buy 10.8 million 90-kilogramme bags immediately, equivalent to roughly 970,000 tonnes, with a further three million bags required thereafter. That first tranche alone would approach a million tonnes of maize moving out of Zambia in a single transaction.
Where the maize would come from
Zambia’s position is unusually comfortable. The country produced 5.1 million tonnes of maize this year and carries more than 1.6 million tonnes over from last season, figures Dr Siakalenge says are enough for both domestic consumption and export. That surplus is the result of consecutive strong harvests, a welcome reversal after the 2023/2024 drought that slashed production and forced the country into organised mealie-meal imports.
Kenya’s demand is not new. Dr Siakalenge disclosed that Kenya indicated interest in buying more than 1.5 million metric tonnes when a Zambian delegation visited Nairobi earlier this year, but the transaction never materialised. Kenya has since formally declared a national requirement of 25 million bags, about 2.2 million tonnes. Mr Kiroti is in Lusaka seeking the government’s assurance that maize will be reserved for the Kenyan market, alongside competitive pricing and favourable payment terms.
What it means for farmers and the kwacha
For Zambian maize growers, a committed buyer of this size is the difference between a glut and a market. Large off-take agreements support farm-gate prices and give the Food Reserve Agency room to release stock without depressing prices for smallholders. Export sales are also earned in foreign exchange, and at the volumes discussed, the transaction would add to the reserve build-up that has helped stabilise the kwacha at around K19 to the United States dollar.
Dr Siakalenge framed the wider prize as regional: formalising maize trade between Zambia and Kenya would strengthen intra-COMESA commerce and move the region toward trading its own grain rather than looking outside Africa for shortfall cover.
The caution: exports and the mealie-meal price
Zambia’s history with maize exports is a story of sharp reversals. In surplus years, government has opened exports, then closed them abruptly when projections soured, straining relations with buyers who had planned around Zambian supply. A near-million-tonne first tranche to Kenya is exactly the kind of commitment that requires the export permit system, stock monitoring and the Food Reserve Agency’s strategic reserve to work in sync, because the fastest way to turn a surplus into a shortage is to export the buffer.
The timing also matters. With the next planting season ahead and the 2026/2027 season exposed to another forecast El Nino cycle, the size of the carryover Zambia is willing to sell, rather than the size of the harvest, will be the real policy decision in this deal.
What happens next
Officials must now agree volumes, pricing and payment terms, and confirm which stocks are available for export without touching the strategic reserve. If the first 10.8 million bags move quickly, expect follow-on interest from other Kenyan and regional buyers, and with it, renewed pressure on Zambia to decide how much surplus it is genuinely willing to sell.
Related reading
- Njala Insurance: The Case for Paying Zambia’s Drought Cover in Maize, Not Kwacha
- Africa Must Prepare Now for the Unrelenting 2026 El Nino Wave
- From K70 to K15: How Debt Restructuring Changed What Zambia’s Taxes Pay For
- Zambia’s Post-Election Rally Is Economically Sound
- Zambia’s Maize Export Opportunity Faces Food-Security and Climate Risk
