Key takeaways
- The World Meteorological Organization has confirmed a significant El Niño event is expected to intensify through late 2026, and Africa faces it with inadequate technology, financing and institutional capacity.
- Southern and Eastern Africa face below-average rainfall that threatens rain-fed agriculture, which employs over 60% of Africa’s workforce, while the Horn, Central Africa and coastal West Africa face heightened flood and disease risk.
- Ethiopia’s 2015/2016 response, scaled through its Productive Safety Net Programme and anticipatory financing, shows preparedness can prevent famine and keep children in school.
- Africa’s problem is implementation, not policy: Agenda 2063, AfCFTA and National Adaptation Plans exist, but technology gaps, fiscal constraints and fragmented responses persist.
- The author argues safety nets are climate infrastructure, and Africa needs a coordinated continental response now, not after the wave arrives.
28th August, 2026
The climate crisis is no longer a distant forecast for Africa. It is a present and accelerating reality, observed Dr. Kelvin Kamayoyo, Technical Advisor for African Rivers, a nonprofit international organization promoting the health of waterbodies on the continent of Africa. The World Meteorological Organization has confirmed that a significant El Niño event is expected to intensify through late 2026 (WMO, 2025). For Africa, a continent already contending with structural vulnerabilities, this upcoming wave is unrelenting and unforgiving.
For the past 50 years, African states have laboured to formulate regulatory and policy frameworks for economic, political, environmental, and social development, with the expectation of yielding practical and tangible benefits (UNECA, 2023). Yet despite significant upstream efforts, the continent continues to face inadequate technology, financing, and institutional capacity to withstand the aggressive forces induced by El Niño and broader climate change. This deficit is now exacerbated by a new global phenomenon: the retreat into isolationism and the quiet collapse of multilateralism. The world has largely abandoned the spirit of “being a brother’s keeper” and embraced a doctrine of “you are on your own” (Stiglitz, 2022).
This brings us to the introduction of our analysis. The introduction sets the logic that Africa cannot afford to delay. This article is timely and it argues that Africa must prepare now, not tomorrow, by building comprehensive safety nets and a coordinated continental response. Failure to do so risks turning the 2026 El Niño wave into a humanitarian and development catastrophe.
What Africa faces in the 2026 El Niño
El Niño Southern Oscillation events alter global weather patterns. For Africa, the impacts are sharply uneven and severe (IPCC, 2023).
First, on erratic rains and prolonged dry spells. Southern and Eastern Africa are projected to experience below-average rainfall and extended dry spells (FEWS NET, 2025). This directly threatens rain-fed agriculture, which employs over 60% of Africa’s workforce (AfDB, 2024). Reduced harvests will undermine food security at household and national levels. Critically, this will also disrupt school feeding programmes that currently improve child nutrition, school attendance, and concentration across 17 African countries (WFP, 2024). When meals disappear from schools, children drop out, and a generation’s human capital is eroded.
Second, on unprecedented floods and health risks. Conversely, parts of the Horn of Africa, Central Africa, and coastal West Africa face a heightened risk of extreme rainfall and flooding (WMO, 2025). Floods destroy schools, displace communities, and cut access to health services. They also induce water-borne diseases such as cholera and typhoid, which disproportionately affect school-going children (WHO, 2023). The 2023-2024 El Niño-linked floods in Libya, Kenya, and Somalia offer a grim preview (OCHA, 2024). This is an example where countries that did not have adequate anticipatory systems and infrastructure suffered extensive damages, displacement, and loss of life when the El Niño rains arrived.
To illustrate the other side of the logic, we can look at where safety nets worked. During the 2015/2016 El Niño, Ethiopia faced one of its worst droughts in 50 years. However, because the country had an established Productive Safety Net Programme and an early warning system linked to anticipatory financing, it was able to scale up cash transfers and food aid to over 8 million people before the worst impacts hit (WFP, 2017). While there was still significant hardship, the programme prevented widespread famine and kept millions of children in school feeding programmes, showing that preparedness can buffer the shock.
Prepared on paper, not in practice
Our analysis then turns to a continent prepared on paper, but not in practice. Africa’s policy architecture is not the problem. From Agenda 2063 to the African Continental Free Trade Area, to National Adaptation Plans, the continent has invested heavily in frameworks (AU, 2023).
The gap lies in implementation. Three constraints persist. First is inadequate technology and resources. Early warning systems, climate-resilient infrastructure, and drought-resistant agriculture remain underfunded and unevenly deployed (UNFCCC, 2024). Second are fiscal constraints. Debt servicing and a slowing global economy have reduced fiscal space for contingency planning and social protection (IMF, 2025). Third is a fragmented response. The new global trend toward isolationism is eroding multilateral cooperation precisely when it is most needed (Bretton Woods Project, 2024). Climate shocks do not respect borders, yet our responses still do.
The inherent gains that come with synergy of shared data, pooled resources, coordinated humanitarian response are being eliminated. The world is becoming less stable across economic, social, and environmental spheres, confronted with a cascade of unpredictable events: El Niño, pandemics, volcanic activity, inequality, corruption, and conflict (UNDRR, 2024).
Why safety nets cannot wait
From this, the logic leads to why safety nets cannot wait. Safety nets are not a welfare afterthought. They are climate infrastructure. Comprehensive safety nets combine: anticipatory financing to release funds before shocks hit; adaptive social protection that scales up cash transfers and school feeding during crises; climate-resilient agriculture support for smallholder farmers; and regional coordination for food reserves, water management, and disease surveillance.
Without them, the 2026 El Niño wave will translate directly into hunger, disease, school dropouts, and civil unrest. With them, communities can absorb shocks and recover faster.
Africa’s fast-growing population, projected to reach 2.5 billion by 2050 (UN DESA, 2024), means that the cost of inaction compounds every year. We cannot afford to respond after the fact.
A coordinated continental response
Our analysis then presents the call for a coordinated continental response. Africa must come together now to strategize and develop a coordinated and comprehensive response plan. This requires political will and active participation of non-state actors. Heads of State must prioritize climate risk in national budgets and in AU summits. It requires substantial investment. A portion of climate finance must be redirected directly to decentralized safety nets managed at district level. It requires data and early warning. The African Multi-Hazard Early Warning System must be operationalized across all 55 states (WMO and AU, 2023). Finally, it requires reviving multilateralism. We must reject the “you are on your own” doctrine. Development partners and global institutions must honor commitments to solidarity and risk-sharing (Oxfam, 2023).
The 2026 El Niño wave may be catastrophic if we meet it fragmented and unprepared. It can be manageable if we meet it united and foresighted.
Conclusion
The conclusion of our analysis is direct. The evidence is clear. The risk is imminent. The tools are known. What is missing is urgency and unity. Africa has spent 50 years building the policy scaffolding. Now we must build the floors, walls, and roofs which are the safety nets that protect people when the storm comes.
The climate will not wait. Our children in school cannot wait. The time to act is now.
For comments contact the researcher and author on email: kamayoyokm@gmail.com
References
African Development Bank (AfDB) (2024) African Economic Outlook 2024. Abidjan: AfDB.
African Union (AU) (2023) Agenda 2063: The Africa We Want. Addis Ababa: AU Commission.
Bretton Woods Project (2024) The Fragmentation of Global Governance. London: BWP.
FEWS NET (2025) East and Southern Africa Food Security Outlook. Washington DC: FEWS NET.
International Monetary Fund (IMF) (2025) World Economic Outlook: Slowing Growth, Rising Risks. Washington DC: IMF.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2023) Sixth Assessment Report: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Geneva: IPCC.
OCHA (2024) Humanitarian Overview: Horn of Africa Floods. Geneva: United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.
Oxfam (2023) Climate Finance Shadow Report 2023. Oxford: Oxfam International.
Stiglitz, J. (2022) The Road to Freedom: Economics and the Good Society. New York: W.W. Norton.
United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA) (2024) World Population Prospects 2024. New York: UN.
United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) (2023) Economic Report on Africa 2023. Addis Ababa: UNECA.
UNDRR (2024) Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction. Geneva: United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction.
UNFCCC (2024) Adaptation Gap Report 2024. Bonn: United Nations Climate Change Secretariat.
WHO (2023) Cholera Global Situation and Response. Geneva: World Health Organization.
WFP (2017) Ethiopia El Niño Response: Lessons Learned. Rome: World Food Programme.
WFP (2024) State of School Feeding Worldwide 2024. Rome: World Food Programme.
WMO (2025) El Niño/La Niña Update and Seasonal Outlook. Geneva: World Meteorological Organization.
WMO and AU (2023) African Multi-Hazard Early Warning and Early Action System. Geneva: WMO.
Featured image: Sea surface height anomaly for the 2026 El Niño, 8 June 2026. Credit: NASA Earth Observatory using Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich data (public domain).
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