President Hakainde Hichilema has stretched his lead over NRPUP challenger Brian Mundubile to 225,971 votes as the Electoral Commission of Zambia works through the August 13 presidential count, even as Mundubile disputes the process and observers flag a brief suspension in tallying.
By The Zambian Economist Analyst
Introduction
Zambia’s presidential race has moved from a narrow opening margin to a gap now measured in the hundreds of thousands. Consolidated figures released by the Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ) put incumbent Hakainde Hichilema of the United Party for National Development (UPND) on 1,056,812 votes against 830,841 for Brian Mundubile of the National Reconciliation Party for Unity and Prosperity (NRPUP), from 105 of the country’s 226 constituencies. Hichilema’s share stands at 56.0%, Mundubile’s at 44.0%.
The count is the first under Zambia’s expanded electoral map. Constitutional Amendment Act No. 13 of 2025, signed into law on 18 December 2025, raised the number of constituencies from 156 to 226 and introduced a mixed-member proportional system with reserved seats for women, youth and persons with disabilities. Roughly 8.8 million Zambians were registered to vote.
How the Gap Has Moved
The margin between the two frontrunners has widened steadily as more constituencies report, though not at a constant rate. At several points, Mundubile has narrowed the gap on individual batches of results even as Hichilema’s cumulative lead grew, because his strongest results have come from vote-rich Southern Province constituencies that report in bulk.
| Constituencies declared | Hichilema | Mundubile | HH lead |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 243,509 | 161,883 | 81,626 |
| 49 | 438,708 | 351,281 | 87,427 |
| 70 | 626,434 | 505,795 | 120,639 |
| 105 | 1,056,812 | 830,841 | 225,971 |
The pattern beneath the totals is uneven. Mundubile has been winning more individual constituencies than Hichilema in several tallies, consolidating support across Luapula, Eastern, Northern, Muchinga and parts of the Copperbelt, provinces that leaned toward the former Patriotic Front. Hichilema’s advantage comes from the size of his wins rather than their number: in Southern Province seats such as Dundumwezi, Kalomo South, Magoye East and Chikankata, he has polled tens of thousands of votes to Mundubile’s low hundreds. Analysts at The Zambian Observer have noted that removing a handful of Southern Province results from the consolidated count would leave Mundubile ahead on the remainder, underlining how concentrated Hichilema’s current advantage is.
Hichilema has also performed strongly in Lusaka and Central provinces and picked up support in parts of North-Western Province, while Mundubile’s biggest margins have come from Eastern Province seats including Chipata North, Chasefu North and Kaumbwe.
A Disputed Count
The tallying process has not gone smoothly. Vote counting was briefly suspended amid security concerns during the collation process. Mundubile has claimed victory based on his party’s own parallel vote count and has alleged irregularities, including claims that military personnel took control of tallying centres in Mufulira, that result forms went missing, and that officials in North-Western Province were instructed to stop releasing results.
Hichilema has not declared victory. His campaign has described the results so far as encouraging while counting continues, and campaign media director Mark Simuuwe has rejected Mundubile’s claims, describing the official results as legitimate.
The SADC observer mission, led by former Malawian justice minister Samuel Tembenu, said it was not in a position to observe the counting and collation of results during the suspension and would address the episode in its final report. The mission has urged candidates, supporters and stakeholders to remain calm while counting continues.
The ECZ is working within a 72-hour constitutional window for tallying, announcing and declaring results, running from the closure of the last polling station in the early hours of Friday, 14 August.
Business and Investor Implications
An extended or contested count carries costs for a currency and a debt profile still recovering from Zambia’s 2020 sovereign default and subsequent restructuring. Kwacha volatility and bond spreads tend to track perceived political risk during close counts, and portfolio investors weighing continuity of Hichilema’s fiscal and mining-sector policies against a contested outcome will be watching the ECZ’s final declaration and any legal challenges that follow. Businesses with import or procurement cycles tied to the kwacha should budget for short-term currency swings until a result is confirmed and accepted.
Policy Implications
A confirmed Hichilema win would point to continuity on the current government’s IMF programme, debt restructuring commitments and mining investment drive. A contested result, or one that ends up before the courts, would extend policy uncertainty at a point when Zambia is trying to lock in copper production growth and Eurobond market access. Either way, the reserved seats and expanded constituency structure introduced by the 2025 constitutional reforms will shape the composition of the National Assembly regardless of who wins the presidency.
Conclusion
With 121 constituencies still to report, Hichilema’s lead is substantial but not yet final, and the manner of the count, not just its numbers, has become part of the story. Mundubile’s contest of the process, and the SADC mission’s acknowledgement that it could not observe part of the count, mean the declaration itself will be watched as closely as the vote totals.
Key Takeaways
- Hichilema leads Mundubile 1,056,812 to 830,841 (56.0% to 44.0%) from 105 of 226 constituencies.
- The lead has widened from 81,626 votes at 27 constituencies to 225,971 at 105.
- Hichilema’s advantage rests on large margins in Southern Province; Mundubile is winning more individual constituencies elsewhere.
- Mundubile disputes the process and claims victory on his own parallel count; Hichilema has not yet declared victory.
- The ECZ is working within a 72-hour constitutional counting window that began in the early hours of 14 August.
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