By Zambian Economist Analyst
Every manifesto promise eventually has to fit inside one document: the national budget. Understanding roughly how it works, where the money comes from, where it already has to go before anything new can be funded, and what a percentage point of GDP actually means, is the single most useful piece of economic literacy a voter can carry into 13 August. This is not an argument for or against any party. It is the arithmetic every party’s promises have to survive.
The 2026 budget, in one place
Finance and National Planning Minister Situmbeko Musokotwane presented the 2026 National Budget to the National Assembly on 26 September 2025. It totals K253.1 billion, equivalent to 27.4% of GDP and a 16.6% increase on 2025. Parliament approved it in December 2025.
| Financing source | Amount | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Domestic revenue | K206.5 billion | 81.6% |
| Grants | K12.1 billion | 4.8% |
| Borrowing | K34.5 billion | 13.6% |
Source: Ministry of Finance and National Planning, 2026 Budget Address, 26 September 2025.
Of domestic revenue, tax contributes 65.5 percentage points and non-tax revenue 16.8, meaning most of what funds the budget is genuinely raised inside the country, not borrowed or donated, a meaningfully different funding mix from a decade ago.
Where it goes, and why this table is the one to actually read
| Function | Amount | Share of budget |
|---|---|---|
| General public services (mostly debt servicing) | K92.6 billion | 36.6% |
| Economic affairs (agriculture, roads, mining, energy, tourism) | K58.6 billion | 23.2% |
| Education | K33.0 billion | 13.0% |
| Health | K26.1–26.2 billion | 10.3% |
| Social protection | K15.7 billion | 6.2% |
Source: Ministry of Finance and National Planning; Lusaka Times, 27 September 2025.
The single largest line item is not a service Zambians receive directly. Of the K92.6 billion for general public services, K52 billion is domestic debt servicing and roughly K21.7–22 billion is external debt servicing, together closer to K74 billion, or close to 29% of the entire budget, committed before a single school, clinic or road is funded. Analysis by ZIPAR and the United Nations in Zambia notes that debt service and social spending combined now consume roughly a third of the national budget between them, a useful way to see how much fiscal room actually exists for new promises once existing obligations are met.
Why debt service eating this much matters for every manifesto
This is the number that should sit behind any campaign promise involving new spending. A promise to expand a programme, cut a tax, or launch new infrastructure has to be funded from what is left after roughly 29% of the budget is already committed to debt repayment, unless it comes with a credible plan to raise more domestic revenue, secure more grants, or borrow further, each of which has its own cost or ceiling. Our companion piece, the economics of election promises, sets out how to stress-test a specific manifesto commitment against exactly this arithmetic.
It also explains why education’s allocation, though rising in kwacha terms to K33 billion, actually fell as a share of the total budget, from 14.5% to 13.1%, according to the ZIPAR/UN analysis. A rising number and a shrinking share can both be true in the same budget line, and headlines tend to report only the first.
The fiscal targets behind the numbers
- Growth target: the government’s own 2026 budget assumes 6.4% GDP growth, notably higher than the IMF’s independent 4.3% forecast and the World Bank’s 2026–28 average of 5.3%, a gap worth watching as the year unfolds. See our explainer on what Zambia’s actual Q1 2026 GDP growth showed.
- Fiscal deficit target: 2.1% of GDP for 2026, down from a targeted 4.6% in 2025.
- Inflation target range: 6–8%. Annual inflation stood at 6.5% in June 2026, within that band, see our inflation tracker.
- Domestic revenue target: 22.3% of GDP.
What ordinary voters can actually check
None of this requires an economics degree to use. Three questions turn any manifesto pledge from a slogan into something you can evaluate:
- Where does the money come from? A promise funded by “efficiency savings” is a different claim from one funded by a specified new tax or a specific borrowing plan.
- What does it compete with? Every new kwacha of spending competes with the roughly 29% already going to debt service, and with existing commitments to education, health and social protection.
- What is the timeframe? A pledge phased over a full five-year term draws on a very different fiscal picture than one promised in year one, when debt service commitments are already fixed by existing bond and loan schedules.
Common mistakes when reading budget and manifesto numbers
- Treating a rising kwacha figure as a rising priority. Education’s budget rose in kwacha terms and fell as a share of the total, both are accurate, and they tell different stories.
- Ignoring the financing side. A spending number without a stated funding source is not yet a costed policy.
- Confusing the government’s growth target with an independent forecast. The 2026 budget assumes 6.4% growth; the IMF’s independent forecast is 4.3%. Both are legitimate numbers to know, but they answer different questions, one is a policy target, the other an external projection.
- Assuming debt service disappears if it isn’t mentioned. It is the largest single budget function regardless of which party is asked about it.
Whether the 2.1%-of-GDP deficit target holds as the year progresses, and how the next government’s first budget cycle after 13 August treats debt-service and social-spending trade-offs. See our 2026 economic calendar for the relevant dates.
How big is Zambia’s 2026 national budget?
K253.1 billion, equivalent to 27.4% of GDP, a 16.6% increase on the 2025 budget.
How is the 2026 budget funded?
81.6% from domestic revenue (K206.5 billion), with the remainder from grants (K12.1 billion) and borrowing (K34.5 billion).
How much of the budget goes to debt servicing?
Around K74 billion combined, K52 billion domestic and roughly K21.7–22 billion external, close to 29% of the total budget, the single largest committed function.
How much is allocated to education and health in 2026?
Education receives K33 billion (13.0% of the budget, down from a 14.5% share in 2025); health receives K26.1–26.2 billion (10.3%).
What is Zambia’s fiscal deficit target for 2026?
2.1% of GDP, down from a targeted 4.6% in 2025.
What growth rate does the 2026 budget assume?
6.4%, the government’s own target, which is higher than the IMF’s independent forecast of 4.3% for 2026.
Why does understanding the budget help evaluate election promises?
Because any new spending commitment has to be funded from what remains after existing obligations, including the roughly 29% of the budget already committed to debt servicing, are met.
