By Zambian Economist Analyst
Zambia produced a record 890,346 tonnes of copper in 2025, still short of its own one-million-tonne target. The gap to the 2031 goal of 3 million tonnes now hinges on power, not price.
The Number That Matters
Zambia produced 890,346 tonnes of copper in 2025, up 8% from 825,513 tonnes in 2024, Mines and Minerals Development Minister Paul Kabuswe announced in January. It was a record for the country and the second consecutive year of growth, but it again missed the government’s one-million-tonne annual target. The gap between that missed target and the government’s public ambition of 3 million tonnes a year by 2031 is the real story.
Where the Growth Came From
The 2025 increase was uneven. Vedanta’s Konkola Copper Mines recorded a fourfold surge to 80,215 tonnes as the operation continued its post-restructuring recovery. Mopani Copper Mines, owned by the United Arab Emirates’ International Resources Holding, rose 40.27%. Kansanshi, operated by Canada’s First Quantum Minerals, grew a more modest 5%. Two Copperbelt tailings and grade problems worked against the total: a tailings dam collapse at Sino-Metals Leach in February 2025 and lower ore grades at First Quantum’s Trident operation.
A Rockier Start to 2026
Momentum did not carry cleanly into the new year. Zambia’s copper output fell 4.27% in the first quarter of 2026, to 208,992 tonnes from 218,308 tonnes a year earlier, an annualised run rate of roughly 836,000 tonnes, below even the missed 2025 target. Kabuswe has pointed out that large-scale mine output actually grew 1.8% year on year over the same period, meaning the headline decline was concentrated among smaller producers.
| Year | Output (tonnes) | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | ~737,000 (implied) | — |
| 2024 | 825,513 | +12% |
| 2025 | 890,346 | +8% |
| 2031 target | 3,000,000 | — |
Business and Investor Implications
Benchmark copper futures have risen more than 40% over the past year to around $14,000 a tonne, driven partly by US stockpiling ahead of a tariff decision. Higher prices improve the economics of exactly the kind of expansion Zambia needs, but industry sources say the constraint is no longer geology or price. It is power. Analysts estimate at least 2,000 additional megawatts are needed to support the production targets, and mining firms have made expanded generation, alongside faster exploration licensing and processing incentives, their top asks of whichever government takes office after 13 August.
Key Takeaways
- Zambia’s copper output rose to 890,346 tonnes in 2025, still short of the 1-million-tonne annual target.
- Growth was led by Konkola (Vedanta) and Mopani (IRH), while Kansanshi (First Quantum) grew more modestly.
- Q1 2026 output fell year on year, though large-scale mines alone grew 1.8%.
- Power supply, not price or geology, is now the binding constraint on the 3-million-tonne 2031 ambition.
Related reading: Inside Statutory Instrument 68: Zambia’s New Local-Content Rules for Miners and Copper Nears $14,000 as US Tariff Fears Drive Stockpiling
