Two very different messages as the count continues
Zambians went to the polls on 13 August in a general election that pits President Hakainde Hichilema of the United Party for National Development against Brian Mundubile, the National Reconciliation Party for Unity and Prosperity candidate backed by the Tonse Alliance, along with twelve other presidential contenders.
As counting has continued into a second day, the two leading campaigns have struck sharply different tones. President Hichilema has asked citizens to stay calm and let the process run its course, telling supporters the country should await the official outcome from the body constitutionally mandated to manage the vote, the Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ).
Mundubile has taken the opposite approach. Addressing supporters, the NRPUP candidate said his campaign had already won both the presidency and most parliamentary seats, a claim made while millions of votes across the country’s 226 constituencies remained uncounted or unverified.
What the official count actually shows
No national result has been declared. The ECZ opened its National Results Centre at the Mulungushi International Conference Centre in Lusaka this week and has set out a verification timeline running from 15 to 17 August, with the presidential result expected to be announced on the final day.
Local tallies released so far are partial and mixed rather than one sided. Reports from individual polling stations and constituencies show NRPUP performing strongly in parts of the Copperbelt, including a clean sweep of Chingola’s three parliamentary seats, and the Patriotic Front’s Gary Nkombo losing the Mazabuka Central seat. Other polling station returns show UPND ahead. None of these scattered figures amount to a national picture, and only the ECZ’s consolidated, verified count will.
ECZ chairperson Mwangala Zaloumis, commissioning the results centre, asked journalists to report objectively and rely on figures issued by the Commission rather than repeating speculation or unverified claims circulating during the count.
Why premature victory claims matter for markets and business
A contested or drawn out declaration period carries real economic weight, not just political risk. The kwacha, the Lusaka Securities Exchange and short term borrowing costs are all sensitive to uncertainty about who will set fiscal, mining and debt policy for the next five years.
Zambia’s copper sector, its Eurobond position and its ongoing engagement with the IMF all depend on policy continuity or a clearly telegraphed change of direction. Competing and unverifiable victory claims, amplified faster on social media than official results can be verified, raise the risk of confusion among investors and, in the worst case, unrest that would carry its own economic cost.
This is the direct reason ECZ has asked media houses to hold the line on sourcing during the verification window: unverified claims that later prove wrong are harder to walk back than they are to publish.
What happens next
Verification of constituency returns runs through 15 to 17 August. The ECZ has indicated the presidential result will be announced at the end of that process. Under Zambia’s two round system, if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid vote, a run off between the top two contenders would follow.
Until that declaration, statements from any campaign about having already won are claims, not results. The Zambian Economist is reporting them as such and will update this article once the ECZ issues its official position.
Business, investor and policy implications
- Businesses: hold major pricing, hiring and investment decisions until the ECZ declaration removes policy uncertainty.
- Investors: watch the kwacha and Zambian Eurobond spreads for volatility tied to unverified claims rather than to the official count.
- Policymakers: the verification period is the moment to demonstrate the transparency ECZ has promised, which matters for Zambia’s IMF programme and its wider credibility with creditors.
Key takeaways
- No national result has been declared. ECZ verification runs 15 to 17 August, with the presidential result expected on 17 August.
- President Hichilema has called for patience; challenger Brian Mundubile has claimed victory ahead of any official declaration.
- Local results reported so far are mixed and partial, not a national picture.
- ECZ has asked the media to rely on its official figures rather than amplify unverified claims during the count.
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