Government has directed every Permanent Secretary, Provincial Administration and Local Authority to activate contingency plans for the anticipated 2026/2027 “Supersized” El Niño, a step that shifts Zambia’s climate response from reaction to anticipation before the rains even begin.
By Dr. Kelvin Kamayoyo, Technical Advisor, African Rivers | The Zambian Economist Analyst
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- Through Secretary to the Cabinet Patrick Kangwa, government has directed all Permanent Secretaries, Provincial Administrations and Local Authorities to immediately activate contingency plans for the 2026/2027 El Niño (Kangwa, 2026).
- Climate scientists are calling this event “supersized” because of record-high ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, and it arrives while sluggish global growth and trade disruption leave countries with less fiscal space to respond (WMO, 2026).
- Zambia’s own forecasters expect a high probability of drought, delayed rainfall onset, localised floods and storms this season, with knock-on risks to food, water, health and infrastructure (ZMD, 2026; IPCC, 2023).
- Research from the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction shows every $1 spent on early warning and preparedness can save up to $7 in emergency response costs, the economic logic behind acting now rather than later (UNDRR, 2022).
Government activates contingency plans nationwide
The Government of the Republic of Zambia deserves commendation for taking a proactive stance in preparing the country for the anticipated 2026/2027 Supersized El Niño event. Through the Secretary to the Cabinet, Mr. Patrick Kangwa, government has directed all Permanent Secretaries, Provincial Administrations, and Local Authorities to “immediately activate contingency plans in preparation for the anticipated effects of El-Niño” (Kangwa, 2026).
Speaking during the launch of the 2026/2027 National Seasonal Rainfall Forecast Outlook on 15th September 2026, Mr. Kangwa warned that “the weather phenomenon could worsen food insecurity across Zambia” (Kangwa, 2026). He further stated that “Government institutions should not wait for the effects of the weather pattern to become a crisis before taking action, as different parts of the country are expected to experience varying levels of rainfall during the 2026-2027 season” (Kangwa, 2026). Mr. Kangwa also “urged citizens, particularly farmers, to also prepare early and adjust their activities according to the expected weather conditions” (Kangwa, 2026).
A “supersized” El Niño arriving in a fragile global economy
In the global context, the 2026 to 2027 El Niño is being described by climate scientists as “supersized” due to record-high ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific (WMO, 2026). This supersized El Niño matters the most because of its anticipated scale and the circumstance that the world is currently characterised by sluggish economic growth and conflicts that are affecting smooth international trade flows. These global pressures mean that countries have less fiscal space and fewer supply chain buffers to respond when climate shocks hit.
Warning signs already visible worldwide
The phenomenon is already manifesting globally. According to the World Meteorological Organization, Europe is experiencing prolonged heatwaves, Asia is recording increased flooding and tropical storms, and parts of North America are facing more intense wildfires and drought cycles (WMO, 2026). As West Midlands science and environment correspondent David Gregory-Kumar observes, “in 2026, things have reached some sort of tipping point where we can start to see really obvious signs of change that had a huge impact on at least some of us” (Gregory-Kumar, 2026). He further notes that “everywhere you look in the region, people are dealing with the identified issues climate change is causing and it’s costing all of us money” (Gregory-Kumar, 2026). Gregory-Kumar (2026) also quotes one expert who stated that “climate change is here, the climate the UK was designed for no longer exists and that leaves us with no choice but to adapt.”
Lessons from the 2015/2016 El Niño
El Niño events are known to “disrupt normal atmospheric circulation, leading to extremes of drought in some regions and excessive rainfall in others” (IPCC, 2023). Historical evidence supports this pattern. The Food and Agriculture Organization notes that the 2015 to 2016 El Niño “contributed to crop failure and water shortages for over 60 million people across Southern Africa” (FAO, 2016). As Gregory-Kumar (2026) warns, “since we continue to keep pouring climate change gases into the environment the problems just keep increasing,” and “just wait until next year and the year after that.”
Zambia’s projected exposure: food, water, health and infrastructure
Turning to projected impacts for Zambia and Africa, the Zambia Meteorological Department has indicated through its seasonal models “a high probability of drought conditions, delayed onset of rainfall, localized floods, and storms during the 2026 to 2027 season” (ZMD, 2026). The World Meteorological Organization concurs with this outlook for Southern Africa (WMO, 2026). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change further identifies four critical areas that are likely to be affected (IPCC, 2023).
On food sovereignty, the IPCC notes that “maize and other staple crops are highly sensitive to rainfall variability” and that “delayed rains and mid-season dry spells could reduce yields and increase reliance on food imports” (IPCC, 2023). On water security, the IPCC reports that “reduced river flows and reservoir levels will affect domestic supply, hydropower generation, and irrigation,” particularly in major basins such as the Zambezi and Kafue (IPCC, 2023). On public health, the IPCC states that “drought increases the risk of waterborne diseases, while floods create conditions for cholera and malaria outbreaks” and that “heat stress will also affect vulnerable populations” (IPCC, 2023). On infrastructure, the IPCC asserts that “extreme rainfall events can damage roads, bridges, and energy infrastructure, while droughts undermine rural livelihoods dependent on rain-fed agriculture” (IPCC, 2023).
Why early action pays for itself
The importance of early action cannot be overstated. Mr. Kangwa’s directive is significant because it shifts government response from reaction to anticipation. Research by the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction shows that “every $1 invested in early warning and preparedness can save up to $7 in emergency response costs” (UNDRR, 2022). By activating contingency plans now, line ministries and local authorities can pre-position food reserves, rehabilitate water infrastructure, scale up social protection, and disseminate climate-smart agriculture advisories before the rains begin. This approach is consistent with recommendations in the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR, 2022). It further aligns with Zambia’s commitments under the National Adaptation Plan 2021 to 2030, which “emphasize building resilience at provincial and district level” (GRZ, 2021).
The time to act is now
The 2026 to 2027 super El Niño will test Zambia’s resilience at a time when global economic fragility limits the room for response. However, the early leadership demonstrated by the Secretary to the Cabinet sets an important precedent that climate risk must be managed before it becomes a humanitarian crisis. As Mr. Kangwa noted, “different parts of the country are expected to experience varying levels of rainfall during the 2026-2027 season” (Kangwa, 2026), and therefore responses must be localized, data-driven, and inclusive of farmers and communities.
Zambia’s experience can also serve as a model for other African countries. With coordinated planning, investment in early warning, and community preparedness, the adverse impacts of El Niño can be significantly reduced, as outlined by the WMO (2026) and UNDRR (2022). Let us heed the call to prepare early. The time to act is now.
For comments contact the author by email: kamayoyokm@gmail.com
References
Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) (2016) The Impact of El Niño on Food Security and Agriculture. Rome: FAO.
Government of the Republic of Zambia (GRZ) (2021) National Adaptation Plan 2021-2030. Lusaka: Ministry of Green Economy and Environment.
Gregory-Kumar, D. (2026) Climate commentary on the 2026 tipping point, West Midlands Science and Environment.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2023) Climate Change 2023: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Geneva: IPCC.
Kangwa, P. (2026) Address at the Launch of the 2026-2027 National Seasonal Rainfall Forecast Outlook, 15 September, Lusaka.
United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) (2022) Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction. Geneva: UNDRR.
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) (2026) El Niño/La Niña Update and Global Seasonal Climate Outlook: September 2026. Geneva: WMO.
Zambia Meteorological Department (ZMD) (2026) 2026-2027 National Seasonal Rainfall Forecast Outlook. Lusaka: ZMD.
Related reading: Supersized El Niño 2026/2027 To Stress Rivers, Understanding the ‘Supersized’ El Niño of 2026/2027 and El Niño Warning: Zambia Told to Fix Its Power Gap Before the Drought Bites.
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