By The Zambian Economist Analyst

Zambia has disbursed K31.7 million for food relief in prioritised districts across nine provinces as it prepares for the anticipated effects of the 2026/2027 El Niño, according to a government summary of Vice-President Mutale Nalumango’s ministerial statement.

The money is intended to finance the procurement and distribution of food to vulnerable communities. The Ministry of Information and Media published the summary on 23 October.

What does the food security assessment show?

Nalumango cited the 2026 Zambia Vulnerability and Needs Assessment, whose field findings feed the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis for Zambia.

The IPC report projects that 1,253,124 people, about 1.25 million, will be in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) or worse between October 2026 and March 2027. That is up from about 698,000 people between April and September 2026.

The 1.25 million figure is 7 per cent of the 19.1 million people living in the 93 districts covered by the analysis. It should not be read as 7 per cent of Zambia’s total population, or as a sign that every one of the 93 districts faces the same level of need.

The ministry’s summary gave the at-risk period as August 2026 to March 2027. The IPC report sets the projection at October 2026 to March 2027, the lean season before the next harvest.

The assessment describes people at risk over a specified period. It does not establish that all those people have already received relief, or that they will all be covered by this particular disbursement.

What will the preparedness plan cover?

The Government is implementing a 2026/2027 El Niño Preparedness and Response Plan to coordinate action on the anticipated effects of the weather phenomenon, including potential droughts and floods.

Measures outlined in the statement include climate-smart farming practices, stronger disease surveillance and protection of water sources. Water and energy conservation, food supplies and the continuity of essential services also form part of the response.

The Government and cooperating partners are mobilising financial, human and material resources. Public information will be distributed through radio, television and community platforms to help people receive early warnings and preparedness advice.

Advice for farmers and households

Nalumango urged MPs to share seasonal forecasts in their constituencies and encourage farmers to follow advice from the Zambia Meteorological Department and agricultural extension officers.

Citizens were also asked to conserve water, use appropriate farming practices and preserve available household food stocks.

For farmers deciding when and what to plant, local forecasts and extension advice matter more than assuming that the same conditions will apply across the country. The seasonal outlook released in September points to normal to above-normal rainfall in the north and below-normal rainfall in the south. The government summary does not provide a district-by-district outlook.

From disbursement to food on the table

The K31.7 million is a reported release of funds for procurement and distribution. That is a different stage from confirming that food has reached households.

The public summary does not identify the recipient districts or explain how the money is divided between food purchases and delivery costs. It also gives no food tonnage, beneficiary total for this release or distribution timetable.

Those details will help communities and MPs track implementation. The immediate measures of delivery are how much food is purchased, where it goes and when eligible households receive it.

For households with limited food stocks, timely assistance could reduce the need to divert scarce cash from other essentials. For public agencies, the practical task is to turn the funding into deliveries before shortages deepen.

Related: Why the 2026/2027 super El Niño threatens Zambia’s food, power and budget | Understanding the supersized El Niño of 2026/2027 | The K19.9 billion supplementary budget and payments to FRA maize farmers

Sources: Ministry of Information and Media summary of the Vice-President’s ministerial statement, 23 October 2026; IPC Zambia Acute Food Insecurity Analysis, April 2026 to March 2027.

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By The Zambian Economist Analyst

Finance and National Planning Minister Dr Situmbeko Musokotwane has asked Parliament for K19.9 billion in additional spending for 2026. The bulk of it, K14.7 billion, is meant to pay farmers who sold maize to the Food Reserve Agency during this year’s marketing season.

The minister told the National Assembly that the FRA bought 2.7 million tonnes of maize, against a purchase target of 500,000 tonnes. Government chose to take in the bumper harvest to build national reserves before a lean 2027, when an El Niño event is expected to cut rainfall across southern Africa.

Where the money goes

The Ministry of Agriculture would receive K15.8 billion. That covers the FRA payments and K1.1 billion for the Farmer Input Support Programme, which supplies seed and fertiliser for the coming season.

Other allocations named in the estimates are smaller:

• Ministry of Finance and National Planning: K1.3 billion
• Higher Education Loans and Scholarship Board: K540 million
• Ministry of Defence: K422.5 million
• Contingency Vote: K300 million

The estimates have been referred to the Expanded Planning and Budgeting Committee. They remain subject to parliamentary approval.

A harvest bought on credit

Buying five times the planned volume solved one problem and created another. Farmers had a guaranteed buyer for a record crop, and the country now holds a large buffer against drought. But the FRA’s budget was sized for 500,000 tonnes, so the extra grain became a bill that the original 2026 budget did not cover.

For many smallholders, the delay matters more than the total. Late payment holds up input purchases, school fees and household spending in rural districts, and it weakens confidence in selling to the FRA next season. Settling the arrears quickly would put cash into the rural economy just as planting begins.

The borrowing question

Government plans to borrow K18 billion on the domestic market to fund the package. That is about 90 percent of the supplementary request.

Heavy domestic borrowing late in the year carries costs. It adds to interest payments and competes with private firms for the same pool of bank and pension fund savings, which can push up lending rates. How much pressure it creates will depend on demand at Treasury auctions over the coming weeks.

The reserves themselves also carry a cost. Grain held in storage has to be protected from losses, and the FRA has faced storage shortfalls before. If 2027 brings the poor harvest that forecasters expect, the stock will earn its keep. If it does not, government will have to decide how to release or export surplus maize without depressing farm prices.

What to watch

Three questions will shape how this spending is judged: how quickly farmers are actually paid once Parliament approves the money, what interest rates the Treasury accepts on the new borrowing, and how well the FRA stores and manages 2.7 million tonnes through to the next harvest.

Related: FRA’s Slow Depots and Storage Shortfall Are Turning Zambia’s Bumper Harvest Into a Logistics Problem.

Related: Understanding the ‘Supersized’ El Niño of 2026/2027.

Related: Budget 2027 Should Put Jobs and Productive Investment First.

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By The Zambian Economist Analyst

ZAFFICO is seeking closer cooperation with the Ministry of Green Economy and Environment as it pursues a plantation expansion target of 100,000 hectares by 2028. The engagement also raised the prospect of bringing more smallholder farmers into commercial forestry through structured out-grower partnerships.

For a farming household, the attraction is a potential buyer for trees grown on suitable land. The harder questions concern the years before harvest: who pays for establishment and maintenance, how the selling price is determined and what happens if the crop is damaged.

What ZAFFICO and the ministry discussed

Managing Director Mundia Mundia held a courtesy meeting with Green Economy and Environment Minister Dr Gilbert Siame and Permanent Secretary Dr Douty Chibamba, according to the account of the engagement.

Mundia said ZAFFICO remained committed to supporting government through closer collaboration with agencies including the Forestry Department. He linked the company’s strategy to the government ambition, cited during the meeting, to plant two million hectares of trees by 2031.

ZAFFICO reported that it currently manages 62,733 hectares of pine and eucalyptus plantations across the Copperbelt, Luapula, Muchinga, Northern and North-Western provinces. Its ambition is to expand that area to 100,000 hectares by 2028.

The company target and the national ambition describe different scales of activity. They should not be added together as if they were separate, fully financed planting programmes. The meeting account does not establish how much of the national ambition would be delivered by ZAFFICO or by participating farmers.

What would reaching 100,000 hectares involve?

Figures from the engagement announcement; the difference and approximate 59% increase are The Zambian Economist’s calculations. The target is a plan, rather than area already established.

The expansion ambition is consistent with ZAFFICO’s published 2024-2028 strategic plan, which identifies industrial plantations and agroforestry products as part of its business mission.

The Industrial Development Corporation has also described plantation expansion to 100,000 hectares by 2028 alongside investment in processing. Its account uses a rounded starting figure of 62,000 hectares; the more precise 62,733 figure here is attributed to the latest engagement announcement.

How could a forest out-grower scheme help farmers?

Siame said a well-structured scheme could connect smallholders with large buyers such as ZAFFICO, attract private investment and improve sustainable sourcing. He linked that approach to higher farmer incomes and better livelihoods.

In a forestry out-grower arrangement, growers produce trees under an agreed relationship with a buyer. Depending on the contract, support might include seedlings, technical advice or help with establishment. None of those benefits should be assumed before the scheme’s terms are published.

A dependable buyer can make it easier to plan an investment. A buyer, in turn, benefits from a wider supply base that meets its quality and delivery requirements. Both sides need to understand their obligations before planting begins.

The account of the meeting does not announce an enrolment window, a farmgate price or a guaranteed return. Farmers should therefore treat the discussion as a policy and business direction, rather than an invitation to join an already specified programme.

The contract will determine the income opportunity

Tree growing commits land and labour over time. A household needs to know how it will cover expenses before the trees generate sales, and how forestry fits alongside its food crops and other income sources.

Clear agreements should explain the species and quality required, harvesting arrangements and transport costs. They should also set out how prices will be calculated, when payment falls due and how disputes will be resolved.

Risk-sharing matters. Fire, poor seedling survival and other damage can affect the grower’s expected income and the buyer’s supply. The responsibilities for prevention, losses and any replanting should be explicit.

Published participation criteria and accessible extension advice would help smaller growers understand whether the opportunity suits their land and circumstances. The number of growers enrolled would be useful to track, alongside survival rates and payments actually received.

Value addition needs a dependable wood supply

ZAFFICO’s processing investments make the raw-material question more pressing. A factory needs suitable timber arriving in the right quantities and at a manageable cost. Planting more hectares will support that objective only if trees survive and are managed through to harvest.

There could also be business opportunities in nurseries, plantation maintenance, harvesting and transport. The meeting account provides no quantified employment forecast, so the scale of any additional jobs remains to be established.

Sustainable sourcing requires attention to land rights and appropriate sites as well as production volumes. Commercial pine and eucalyptus plantations serve a different purpose from conserving indigenous woodland. An increase in plantation area should not automatically be presented as equivalent to restoring a natural forest.

Our analysis of trees, food security and household livelihoods explains why suitable species, existing habitats and long-term care matter alongside planting targets.

What would show that the partnership is working?

The next useful step would be a clear programme setting out where out-grower partnerships will operate, who can participate and how growers will be supported. A planting schedule and transparent reporting would also help the public track progress towards the company’s 2028 target.

The economic test is whether the model delivers reliable wood supplies while leaving participating farmers with worthwhile earnings after their costs. Hectares planted are a starting measure. Surviving trees, workable contracts and payments to growers will show whether the forest economy is reaching rural households.

Explore our Agriculture & Mining coverage and related analysis of farm markets, transport and jobs.

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By The Zambian Economist Analyst

For a farmer buying fertiliser, the most important number is the price of a bag delivered close to the farm. Zambia’s latest industrial investment announcement will ultimately be judged against that everyday calculation.

President Hakainde Hichilema has hailed United Capital Fertilizer’s US$1.6 billion urea plant expansion following a groundbreaking ceremony at Wonderful Industrial Park in Chilanga District. According to the announcement supplied for this article, he said the investment would expand fertiliser production, support agricultural productivity and create employment.

He also pointed to opportunities beyond the factory gates, including fertiliser distribution, trucking and trading. Those links matter because a plant’s economic contribution extends to the firms that supply it and the farmers who use its output.

What the 10,000 jobs target means

The President said the investment had already created thousands of direct jobs and that the company was targeting 10,000 direct jobs, alongside further opportunities in related activities.

That is a target, rather than a verified count of jobs already delivered. The announcement does not give a timetable for reaching it or separate existing posts, temporary construction work and permanent operating jobs. It also does not establish how many additional workers would be employed solely because of this expansion.

Publishing those distinctions would allow workers and the public to track delivery. For young Zambians, practical information about recruitment, apprenticeships and the qualifications required would make the employment ambition more useful.

An expansion of an existing industrial operation

UCF already produces Compound D fertiliser and has expanded into top-dressing products, including urea and ammonia, according to the announcement. Hichilema recalled the company’s pledge to invest up to US$5 billion by 2030 and expressed confidence that it could reach that ambition ahead of schedule.

The new groundbreaking follows earlier investment. In its account of the October 2025 commissioning, UCF described a US$641 million urea facility. The company separately announced a US$1.4 billion phase-two agreement with Wuhuan Engineering at that time.

The latest announcement puts the expansion at US$1.6 billion. It does not explain the difference from the earlier phase-two figure, so the amounts should not be added together or treated as separate confirmed expenditure. A published project scope, financing breakdown and completion schedule would clarify what the latest figure covers.

Will farmers pay less for fertiliser?

Increasing domestic production could reduce reliance on imported finished fertiliser and improve the availability of supplies. It does not automatically guarantee a lower retail price.

Factory costs, financing, transport and distributor margins all affect what a farmer pays. Competition also matters: additional output brings greater benefits when buyers can compare suppliers and obtain reliable products without excessive delivery costs.

Hichilema stressed assured quality, correct weight and products suited to different soil types, linking fertiliser availability and high-grade seed to Zambia’s ambition to produce 10 million tonnes of maize. That remains a production ambition. Farmers’ results will also depend on rainfall or irrigation, appropriate application and access to markets.

A useful measure of progress would be the delivered price and availability of a standard bag in farming districts, together with independent quality checks. Supplies arriving after the useful application window can undermine the benefit of increased factory output.

Local suppliers need a route into the investment

For Zambian businesses, the opportunity includes maintenance, packaging, transport and other services needed by an expanding industrial operation. Access will depend on procurement requirements, the scale of contracts and payment terms.

UCF could help smaller firms prepare by publishing supplier requirements and forthcoming tenders. Training and contracts that local businesses can realistically fulfil would spread the benefits of investment more widely.

These are the same questions raised in our analysis of local businesses, value addition and jobs: investment figures need to translate into domestic enterprise growth and household earnings.

Rail and water management deserve scrutiny

The President called for bulk cargo, including coal and fertiliser, to move by rail and urged public-private partnerships to rehabilitate and modernise Zambia Railways. Reliable rail services could help industrial firms move large volumes while easing pressure on roads. Actual savings will depend on tariffs, service reliability and the cost of connecting factories and customers to the network.

He also praised UCF’s treatment and reuse of water extracted from underground, encouraging other industries and Lusaka Water Supply and Sanitation Company to learn from the approach.

Water recycling can reduce demand for fresh supplies, but performance should be assessed through published figures on abstraction, reuse and discharge quality. The announcement provides no independent measurements of those outcomes.

Hichilema discussed coal’s use in chemical production, including urea and mining explosives. Describing a technology as cleaner does not establish its environmental performance. Emissions controls, water protection and regulatory compliance need to be demonstrated as the operation expands.

The test is delivery

The investment gives Zambia an opportunity to deepen domestic manufacturing and support agriculture. Realising that opportunity requires a working plant, sustainable operating costs and distribution that reaches farmers when they need supplies.

For the public, the next useful updates are a construction timetable, clearly defined employment figures and evidence of competitive fertiliser prices. Those measures will show how an investment announcement becomes a gain in a worker’s pay packet or a farmer’s production costs.

Explore more coverage in Agriculture & Mining and our analysis of Grow Zambia, farm markets and jobs.

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By Dr Kelvin Kamayoyo | The Zambian Economist Analyst

For Zambia, trees are part of the infrastructure that supports farming and livelihoods. Losing them can damage the conditions on which food production depends. Planting suitable trees and protecting existing woodland should therefore be treated as an economic investment, alongside their environmental value.

My appeal is simple: where space, land rights and local conditions allow, households and farmers should plant and care for at least three trees. Schools, churches and other institutions can take part too. The useful measure is how many trees survive and provide benefits over time.

What the forest figures actually show

The FAO Global Forest Resources Assessment 2025 estimates that forests cover 4.14 billion hectares. Deforestation averaged 10.9 million hectares annually during 2015-2025, while annual net forest loss was 4.12 million hectares.

These figures measure different things. Deforestation records conversion of forest to other land uses. Net change takes forest gains into account as well as losses. A fall in net loss does not mean that the clearing of established forests has stopped.

The United Nations’ Global Forest Goals Report 2026 announcement says global forest area declined by more than 40 million hectares between 2015 and 2025. It also identifies inadequate finance and continuing pressures from land-use change and climate impacts. Household action matters, but it needs policies and investment that make conservation workable.

How trees connect to food

Trees and woodland provide habitats for organisms that support agricultural production. Their contribution extends beyond the fruit or other products harvested directly from them. Removing habitat can weaken the ecological relationships around farms.

FAO reports that more than three-quarters of the world’s food crops depend at least partly on animal pollination. That is a measure of crop types, not a claim that three-quarters of all food tonnage would disappear without bees.

The distinction is particularly relevant in Zambia, where maize is a staple. FAO’s pollinator guidance notes that maize can reproduce without animal pollination. Food systems nevertheless need diverse crops and functioning ecosystems. The case for protecting trees is stronger when it explains these relationships accurately, rather than suggesting that every crop depends on trees in the same way.

Make tree planting an investment that lasts

A seedling has a purchase cost, but planting also requires labour, space and care. A farmer must consider how a tree fits alongside crops. A household needs to consider its eventual size, roots and access to water. The wrong tree in the wrong place can create problems instead of solving them.

Choose species with local forestry or agricultural extension advice. Indigenous species and locally suitable fruit trees may serve different purposes. No single list is appropriate for every Zambian farm, schoolyard or urban plot, and an introduced species should not be described as indigenous simply because it is commonly planted.

The same caution applies to benefits. Carbon storage, shade and effects on temperature vary with species, age, water availability and location. Three young trees will not immediately deliver the services of three mature trees. Planting cannot guarantee rainfall, remove all dust or replace pollution controls.

A practical household plan should identify who will care for each tree and how it will be protected from fire, livestock and accidental damage. Institutions should budget for maintenance and check survival after planting campaigns. Counting seedlings distributed is only the beginning.

Protect what is already growing

Restoration does not always require buying and planting a seedling. Existing root systems and naturally emerging trees can also be managed and protected where appropriate.

World Vision’s Zambia Farmer Managed Natural Regeneration Business Plan for 2023-2033 sets an ambition to restore two million hectares through direct work and wider adoption. It describes regeneration from existing roots or seeds. That is a programme target, rather than evidence that two million hectares have already been restored.

For communities, the economic question is which approach can restore useful tree cover at a manageable cost. New planting and natural regeneration can complement one another. Neither justifies clearing established woodland on the assumption that replacement trees will quickly make up the loss.

Households cannot carry the whole burden

People need affordable ways to cook and earn a living. Asking households to protect forests while overlooking their energy costs and income constraints leaves the underlying pressure in place. Cleaner cooking options must be affordable to obtain and use; sustainable woodland management also needs credible local incentives.

Public agencies and businesses can support nurseries, extension advice and long-term tree care. Support should be judged by surviving trees and restored ecological functions, rather than ceremonial planting totals. Land-use decisions must also protect existing habitats: naturally open ecosystems should not automatically be treated as empty land awaiting trees.

Planting three suitable trees is a useful place to begin. Protecting them, conserving existing woodland and making sustainable livelihoods possible is the longer task. Zambia’s food security will be better served by sustained care than by a planting-day promise.

Contributor: Dr Kelvin Kamayoyo, Technical Advisor for African Rivers, as identified in the submitted contribution. This edited opinion article retains the author’s household tree-planting proposal; linked sources provide the factual background.

Comments to the author: kamayoyokm@gmail.com.

Explore our Agriculture & Mining coverage. Related reading: farm markets, transport and jobs and Zambia’s preparations for the African Hydro Symposium.

Featured photograph: cathedral mopane woodland in the Game Management Area adjoining South Luangwa National Park, Zambia, 31 May 2005. Archive image, not a current restoration project. © Hans Hillewaert / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0. Cropped and resized; image remains under that licence. The notice below applies to the article text.

Related: Zambia’s 20-24 October heat alert and practical steps for households, workers and farmers.

Related analysis: ZAFFICO’s plantation expansion target and the opportunity for smallholder forest out-growers.

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By The Zambian Economist Analyst

Zambia is targeting 250,000 direct and indirect jobs by 2031 under its Metals and Minerals Country Compact with the World Bank Group. These are planned employment outcomes, not jobs already created or vacancies now available.

The initiative was announced in Bangkok on 16 October at the 2026 IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings. The World Bank Group’s announcement brings together eight countries through compacts and partnerships. Zambia’s framework runs from 2026 to 2036 and supports its ambition to produce three million tonnes of copper annually by 2031.

Does the target mean 250,000 new jobs?

The published compact’s results framework, printed page 10, lists 100,000 direct operational jobs by 2031 against a baseline of approximately 56,000. It separately targets 150,000 indirect jobs, without a numerical baseline. The figures cannot therefore establish that 250,000 additional jobs will be created.

For a jobseeker, that distinction matters. An employment target describes an intended outcome for the sector. It does not identify an employer, an application process or a guaranteed start date. Progress needs to be measured through actual recruitment, the duration of employment and the skills required.

Where households and businesses could benefit

Mine expansion can generate demand beyond the pit. A maintenance contractor may need additional technicians; a manufacturer may need more production workers; a transport company may need drivers. These are possible routes through which investment can reach households, rather than forecasts for particular firms.

Finance Minister Situmbeko Musokotwane linked Zambia’s copper ambition to supporting value-adding industries in the World Bank Group’s launch announcement. The compact includes domestic supplier development and downstream manufacturing.

For a Zambian workshop, the practical questions are whether it can see upcoming tenders, meet technical standards and fund materials before receiving payment. A procurement target alone cannot solve those problems. Supplier support should help firms build the capacity to deliver a contract and compete for the next one.

Processing copper locally also needs a commercial case. Electricity costs, equipment, skilled labour and access to buyers affect whether a factory can operate profitably. A proposed plant should be assessed against those conditions before its expected jobs are counted as a dependable benefit.

Power and skills will shape delivery

An employer cannot sustain output when essential equipment sits idle. Electricity investment and transport improvements must keep pace with industrial expansion. Otherwise, businesses may face higher operating costs and fewer opportunities to recruit.

Training should connect to identifiable demand. Colleges and employers need to explain which qualifications are required, how apprentices gain experience and how many trainees subsequently enter work. Reporting enrolment alone would leave families unable to judge whether training is improving employment prospects.

Keep the financing figures in perspective

The World Bank Group plans to increase its global metals and minerals support fivefold to US$19 billion between fiscal years 2026 and 2030. That figure covers its wider international programme and combines its financing with private capital mobilisation. It is not a US$19 billion grant to Zambia.

For citizens, investment announcements should be followed by evidence of financial commitments, construction and operating businesses. Those stages carry different risks. Treating them as interchangeable makes it harder to judge what has actually been delivered.

What Zambia should track next

A useful public scorecard would show jobs against the baseline, local firms winning and completing contracts, and whether workers move into lasting employment. It should distinguish temporary construction work from ongoing operational roles and explain how indirect employment is estimated, so the same job is not counted twice.

Mining communities also need evidence on environmental compliance and the use of public revenues. A larger industry can create opportunities while imposing costs on nearby households. Both belong in an assessment of its economic contribution.

The compact gives Zambia a framework for coordinating investment. Its value to citizens will become visible through reliable wages, viable domestic businesses and services funded by public revenue. Those are the results against which the 2031 targets should be tested.

Source note: This report draws on the supplied announcement, the published October 2026 compact and the World Bank Group’s 16 October release. The employment figures are targets. Business examples are economic analysis, not interviews or announced vacancies.

Explore our Agriculture & Mining coverage. Related reading: local businesses, value addition and mining jobs and Zambia’s mining local-content rules.

Finance and National Planning Minister Situmbeko Musokotwane speaking at a panel. Photo credit: Ministry of Finance and National Planning (MoFNP). Original framing retained; converted to WebP. The photograph was not AI generated. Image rights remain with the respective rights holder; the notice below applies to our article text.

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By Kelvin Chisanga | The Zambian Economist Analyst

Zambia’s mining expansion will deliver broader prosperity only if it strengthens local businesses, creates productive jobs and supports industries beyond mineral extraction. Production targets and investment announcements matter, but they cannot establish on their own how much value stays in the country.

The Ministry of Mines and Mineral Development’s copper strategy sets a target of three million tonnes a year by 2031. Reaching it requires coordination between mines, electricity suppliers, manufacturers and training institutions. Turning that output into lasting economic transformation requires the same coordination to work for domestic enterprises.

The policy test is practical: can a Zambian engineering firm expand, can an apprentice secure useful technical skills, and can a mining town build businesses that survive the next downturn?

Make local content deliver business capacity

Zambia is not starting without a framework. The ministry’s Local Content Assessment System procurement guide describes phased local-content thresholds for core procurement, reserved non-core activities and quarterly procurement summaries. The challenge is to translate compliance into a stronger domestic supplier base.

Transparent procurement opportunities should be matched with supplier-development programmes and financing that capable Zambian-owned businesses can access. A contract is of limited use to a workshop that cannot finance materials or meet a mine’s technical standards.

Mining companies should communicate their requirements early enough for suppliers to prepare. Banks and development-finance institutions can assess financing against credible purchase orders and delivery capacity, while recognising that a contract does not remove repayment risk.

Public performance reports should distinguish purchases routed through a locally registered intermediary from work that develops production and skills inside Zambia. Both can involve legitimate businesses, but their contribution to domestic industrial capacity is different.

Choose value addition that can compete

Value addition needs a commercial case. Copper processing and downstream manufacturing should be assessed against electricity costs, technical capability, logistics and demand in Zambia and regional markets.

Targeted incentives can help viable projects overcome initial costs. They should have clear conditions, review dates and measurable outcomes. Support should reward investment delivered and productive capacity created, rather than remain available indefinitely after an announcement.

The objective is to build firms that can compete after an incentive ends. Expensive production sustained only by permanent concessions would transfer the cost elsewhere in the economy without necessarily creating a durable industry.

Plan mining expansion alongside reliable electricity

A new mine or processing plant needs electricity at the point of use, when it is needed. Generation capacity alone does not settle whether transmission infrastructure can deliver a dependable supply.

ZESCO’s published project programme identifies transmission reinforcement intended to increase power transfer to the Copperbelt and growing mining loads in North-Western Province. It illustrates why mining and power investment must be planned together. A project listing should not be mistaken for completed infrastructure.

Investment decisions should therefore consider generation, network capacity and a diversified supply mix together. The same infrastructure should, where feasible, improve conditions for surrounding businesses that supply mines or manufacture other products.

Measure skills and technology transfer

Training commitments should be judged by what people can do afterwards. Partnerships between mining companies, universities and technical colleges should specify apprenticeship places, completed qualifications and the technical responsibilities transferred to Zambian workers.

Attendance at a course is a starting point. The more useful measures are whether participants complete it, secure employment or progress into skilled roles. Supplier-development programmes should also build the ability to maintain equipment and meet quality standards locally.

Make mining performance easier to scrutinise

Accessible reporting on mining revenues, procurement, employment, environmental compliance and community commitments would allow citizens to assess whether expansion is delivering its promised benefits.

The information should be comparable across reporting periods. Employment figures should distinguish permanent jobs from temporary construction work, and procurement reports should explain what their local-spending totals include. Community commitments should have budgets and completion dates that residents can check.

Accountability should also apply to public support. Where the state offers an incentive or provides infrastructure, it should explain the expected benefit and report whether it materialised.

Build economies that can outlast the mine

Mining-dependent towns need infrastructure and enterprise development that also serve agriculture, manufacturing and services. A road, technical college or dependable power connection can support several industries if its design looks beyond one operation.

For local businesses, the opportunity is to develop capabilities that can serve more than one mine or sector. For investors, a deeper supplier base and skilled workforce can improve operating resilience. For policymakers, the task is to connect those gains without treating every proposed project as commercially viable.

Zambia should judge its mining revolution by jobs created, domestic industries developed, productivity increased and wealth retained locally. Three million tonnes is a production target. The lasting achievement would be a more capable and diversified economy built around it.

This is a contributed opinion article. The policy recommendations are Kelvin Chisanga’s; the linked official sources provide background on Zambia’s production strategy, procurement framework and electricity planning.

Explore our Agriculture & Mining coverage. Related reading: Zambia’s local-content rules for miners and the electricity expansion agenda.

Featured photograph: Nchanga copper mine near Chingola, 1 June 2008. BlueSalo / Wikimedia Commons, cropped and resized. The photograph remains licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0; the notice below applies to the article text.

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By The Zambian Economist Analyst

Zambia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation has pledged support for stakeholder participation in the 36th African Hydro Symposium, as preparations continue for the November gathering in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

According to the supplied meeting briefing, Ms Etambuyu Anamela Gundersen, Permanent Secretary for International Relations and Cooperation, received Mr Caristo Chitamfya, Head of Communications, Marketing and Business Development at the Kafue Gorge Regional Training Centre (KGRTC), at Charter House.

The discussions focused on preparations for the symposium. Gundersen assured Chitamfya of the Ministry’s support in facilitating effective participation by relevant stakeholders. Both parties reaffirmed their commitment to continued cooperation.

What is the African Hydro Symposium about?

The meeting briefing gives the theme as “Climate Resilience Hydropower and Water-Energy Security in Africa”. KGRTC’s event announcement uses the wording “Climate-Resilient Hydropower and Water-Energy Security in Africa”.

Senior government officials, utility companies and development finance institutions are expected to participate, alongside private businesses, researchers, technical experts and development partners from Africa and beyond, according to the supplied briefing.

KGRTC says the symposium will be held alongside the 11th Hydropower for Today Forum. Its programme covers plant operations, climate resilience, project financing, skills and electricity markets.

When will it take place?

KGRTC’s announcement and a UNECA release dated 13 October 2026 give the symposium dates as 3-6 November 2026 in Addis Ababa. These match the supplied meeting briefing.

The UN Indico registration listing currently shows 3-5 November at the United Nations Conference Centre. Prospective delegates should confirm the final programme and attendance dates with the organisers before making travel arrangements.

Why water-energy security matters for Zambia

Hydropower converts the movement of water into electricity. When water availability changes, the amount of power that a station can generate can change too. Managing that relationship requires attention to river-basin conditions as well as turbines and transmission lines.

For Zambian businesses, the practical concern is dependable electricity for production. A factory’s ability to fulfil orders, or a small enterprise’s ability to operate equipment, depends on power being available when it is needed. Households face the same reliability question in daily life.

Climate resilience therefore has a concrete meaning for electricity planning: assessing how a plant and the wider system would perform under different water conditions. Diversifying supply and coordinating generation sources can form part of that assessment. The appropriate mix requires technical and financial appraisal.

What could Zambia gain from participation?

The symposium offers a setting for utilities and technical institutions to compare operating experience and examine investment proposals. For Zambia, useful follow-up could include training that addresses specific operational gaps and better preparation of projects for financing. These are potential benefits, rather than outcomes secured by the Charter House meeting.

In its October release, UNECA says an African Energy Security Policy Framework launch and a cooperation memorandum involving AFREC and KGRTC are expected at the event. Those remain planned outcomes; the release does not establish that they have already taken place.

For developers and financiers, discussions on climate risk need to translate into credible project assumptions. Water availability, expected electricity sales and the cost of building and operating a plant all affect whether an investment is viable.

What should follow the preparatory meeting?

The supplied briefing identifies support for participation but does not name a final Zambian delegation, its budget or specific technical submissions. It also announces no new generation capacity, financing agreement or change to electricity supply schedules.

A useful measure of participation would be what stakeholders bring back: agreed technical work, practical training opportunities and project-preparation steps with named institutions responsible for follow-up. Attendance can open a conversation. The benefit to electricity users depends on subsequent delivery.

Sources: supplied Charter House meeting briefing; KGRTC symposium announcement; UNECA’s 13 October 2026 release; UN Indico event listing, checked 15 October 2026. Implications for businesses and proposed follow-up measures are The Zambian Economist’s analysis.

Follow our Agriculture & Mining coverage and Economic Diplomacy reporting. Related: ZESCO and the Emoluments Commission discuss sustainable pay and skills retention; What Zambia’s manufacturing vision means for production and jobs.

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By The Zambian Economist Analyst

Why this matters before the rains

For most of Zambia, October is the last stretch of the dry season. Once the rains arrive, grass along fence lines, drainage channels, paddocks and the edges of fields grows faster than a team with slashers can keep up with. Tractors and mowers handle the open ground. The awkward places, such as fence posts, slopes, ditches, the corners around pens and the bush creeping in from the boundary, are where a brushcutter earns its place.

It is also a machine that costs money every time it runs. Most farm brushcutters burn petrol, and petrol now sells at K31.46 a litre after the October fuel price review. A second or third pass over the same patch is paid for in fuel, in blade and line wear, and in the operator’s time and energy.

“How it is used can make all the difference to how effectively the job gets done,” says Timothy Isabirye, Marketing Manager at Husqvarna South Africa. “A brushcutter looks deceptively easy to handle but coupled with unpredictable terrain, it’s trickier than many think.”

These are the six mistakes he says most often slow the work down, whether on a smallholding, a commercial farm or a large estate.

1. Using the wrong cutting attachment

Each attachment has its own job. A trimmer head suits grass and light vegetation. Tougher grass and weeds need a grass blade. Brush and small saplings call for a saw blade.

Fit the wrong one and the cut is poorer, so the operator goes over the same ground several times. The extra passes strain the person holding the machine and wear out the machine itself sooner.

2. Assuming more power is best

The natural instinct is to buy the biggest, most powerful brushcutter on the shelf. Isabirye’s advice is to match the machine to the work it will do most days.

Too much machine for the job adds weight and vibration. The operator tires sooner, and careful work around posts and young trees becomes harder. Too little machine for heavy growth causes the opposite problem: it stalls, labours and takes longer. His rule of thumb is to choose a brushcutter slightly more capable than your lightest regular task requires.

For a farmer comparing prices at a dealer, that is useful. The most expensive model is not automatically the best value if most of the work is grass along a fence.

3. Treating every job the same

Long grass hides things. Stones, loose fencing wire, old stumps and the hard bases of termite mounds are invisible until the blade finds them.

Before starting, look at what you are cutting and what may lie under it. A blade that strikes a hidden obstacle can kick back without warning, throwing the operator off balance or causing injury, and the blade itself can be damaged. The risk is highest along fence lines, around buildings and in corners of the property that are rarely cleared, because that is where rubbish and old materials collect under the growth.

4. Cutting at the wrong angle

It is tempting to drive straight into thick grass or brush. That makes the work harder. Pushing the full face of the blade into vegetation, or forcing the line into dense grass, increases resistance, strains the engine and the operator, and makes it more likely that grass wraps around the head.

A controlled sideways sweep, letting the edge of the blade or the tip of the line do the cutting, gives a cleaner result with less effort. It takes some practice to find the rhythm. Once an operator has it, the work goes noticeably faster.

5. Working against the machine

A day with a brushcutter should not feel like a wrestling match. A badly adjusted harness, handles in the wrong position or an awkward stance make a demanding job more tiring than it needs to be, and over time can contribute to shoulder, back and wrist strain.

Take a few minutes to set the harness and controls for the person using the machine. When it hangs correctly, the operator can hold a steady, comfortable position across a large area or a long shift. On farms where several workers share one machine, that adjustment has to be made for each of them, not set once and forgotten.

6. Skipping some of the protective gear

Technique matters, but protective equipment matters more. Isabirye notes that the legs and lower body take the worst of most brushcutter accidents, so safety trousers belong on the list alongside sturdy boots, eye protection and ear defenders.

That has a cost implication for anyone employing seasonal or casual labour to clear land. The machine is only half of the purchase. The gear for the person using it is the other half.

Getting value from the machine

“A brushcutter can be remarkably versatile,” Isabirye says. “From routine grass trimming to clearing dense brush, it earns its keep across all sorts of properties. And by avoiding these common mistakes and knowing how best to use it, you’ll get maximum value out of it.”

The advice applies to brushcutters of any make. Husqvarna lists its range of brushcutters and protective gear for Zambian buyers at husqvarna.com/zm, and dealers can advise on fitting the right machine and attachment to the job.

This article is based on guidance issued by Husqvarna South Africa.

Related coverage

• Zambia Raises Petrol to K31.46 and Diesel to K33.27 as Excise Duty Returns
• Zambia Warned of Thunderstorms and Strong Winds From 27 September to 2 October
• Grow Zambia Agenda: The Eight Numbers Behind the Plan to Double Zambia’s Economy

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By The Zambian Economist Analyst | 9 October 2026

Zambia’s economy has grown at an average of 5.2 percent between 2021 and 2024, inflation has fallen back inside the Bank of Zambia’s 6 to 8 percent band, and a new IMF programme is on the table. The question the Grow Zambia Agenda tries to answer is what the country does with that stability. Announced in full at President Hakainde Hichilema’s second-term inauguration on 1 September 2026, the agenda sets eight production targets with a single deadline: 2031, by which point government wants the economy to be more than twice its current size, with an estimated additional US$65 billion in annual output.

What the Grow Zambia Agenda actually is

The Ministry of Finance first set out the framework at a strategic visioning briefing on 17 September 2025, when Finance Minister Situmbeko Musokotwane presented the production code that governs the whole programme: 10-10-5-3-3-1-1-1. Each number is a target. President Hichilema repeated the same numbers at the official opening of Parliament this week, a speech we examined here.

• 10 million tonnes of maize
• 10,000 megawatts of installed electricity
• 5 million tourist arrivals a year
• 3 million tonnes of copper a year
• 3 million tonnes of soya beans
• 1 million tonnes of wheat
• 1 million tonnes of sugar
• US$1 billion in beef export earnings

The targets sit inside a US$21 billion investment drive covering mining, agriculture, tourism and renewable energy between 2025 and 2030, and a set of growth projections the Ministry of Finance presented to creditors in late September: 6.0 percent in 2027, 7.5 percent in 2028 and 7.1 percent in 2029, according to Reuters. The through-line is export-led growth. Musokotwane told a post-budget forum that the ultimate test of the agenda is whether it delivers jobs and stronger household incomes, a formulation the IMF has since repeated almost word for word.

The eight targets against today’s numbers

Baselines for soya, wheat and sugar are order-of-magnitude figures drawn from Ministry of Agriculture reporting; the maize, copper, power and tourism figures are as cited.

Why the IMF deal matters to the agenda

On 9 October 2026, the IMF announced a staff-level agreement with Zambia on a new Extended Credit Facility worth about US$1.472 billion, or SDR 1,076 million, over three years. The agreement, which still needs Executive Board approval, replaces the 38-month, US$1.3 billion programme that closed with its sixth review in January 2026.

Two parts of the IMF statement bear directly on the Grow Zambia Agenda. First, the Fund said the authorities, building on the agenda, are committed to ensuring growth translates into better jobs and higher incomes, which locks Musokotwane’s own test into the programme’s language. Second, the fiscal path is tight: from 2027, government will gradually raise the primary surplus to 3 percent of GDP by 2029, mainly through stronger domestic revenue mobilisation. In plain terms, the agenda has to be delivered while the budget runs a surplus, not on borrowed money.

The macro backdrop is more favourable than at any point since 2021. The IMF projects real GDP growth of 5.6 percent in 2026, supported by agriculture, mining and exports. Inflation has fallen to 6.1 percent, inside the Bank of Zambia’s target band for the first time in four years. The new facility is also, in part, a repair job: Ecofin Agency reported that it aims to fix an election-year budget that drifted off track in 2026.

Copper: the engine with the biggest gap

Zambia produced 890,346 tonnes of copper in 2025, up 8 percent from 825,513 tonnes in 2024 but short of the government’s one million tonne goal for the year. Output was worth more than US$11 billion. The 2031 target of 3 million tonnes requires output to grow at roughly 22 percent a year for five consecutive years. In the first half of 2026, production of 447,182 tonnes was up 0.45 percent on the same period a year earlier.

The constraints are not mysterious. The Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research, in an assessment of the 3 million tonne goal, identifies the energy deficit as the most pressing constraint; President Hichilema himself has said the country needs about 8,000 megawatts of reliable power to sustain 3 million tonnes of copper. Reuters reported in March that government is courting global investors, including from the United States, to triple output. Transparency International Zambia has warned that expansion at this speed needs capable regulators and transparent licensing decisions to avoid repeating the governance failures that have historically shadowed Copperbelt mining.

Agriculture: the fast start and the anthrax problem

Agriculture is where the agenda can point to results already. The 2024/25 season produced 3,655,646 tonnes of maize, a rebound of about 140 percent from the drought-hit 1.5 million tonnes of 2023/24, according to ZamStats. The 2025/26 crop is forecast at 4.94 million tonnes, which would be a record and has allowed maize exports to resume. Reaching 10 million tonnes still means doubling a record harvest, which points to irrigation and yields rather than rainfall as the decisive variables. Wheat, sugar and soya follow the same logic.

The beef target faces a more immediate threat. The 2026 anthrax outbreak has spread through cattle districts, reaching a sector government is counting on for US$1 billion in annual beef exports. An industry expert quoted by News Diggers on 9 October called the target achievable, with an initial 20,000 tonnes worth about US$200 million as the realistic starting point. The European Union’s recent suspension of Namibian meat imports over foot-and-mouth disease shows how quickly disease can close the very markets the target depends on. We examined the economics of the outbreak here.

Power and tourism: the quieter targets

Zambia’s installed capacity stood at 3,985.86 megawatts in mid-2025, about 85 percent of it hydro, according to the US International Trade Administration. The 10,000 megawatt goal implies adding the equivalent of two Kariba North Banks and change, mostly from solar, wind and the delayed Batoka Gorge project. The 2024 load-shedding crisis, when low water levels at Kariba forced rationing that hit mining output, explains why the power target is as much about protecting the copper target as about electrifying new homes.

Tourism has the clearest trend line: arrivals rose from 554,290 in 2021 to 2.3 million in 2025, and the sector targets 5 million arrivals with US$1 billion in receipts by 2031. That roughly requires doubling arrivals again while raising spending per visitor, which depends on airport capacity at Kenneth Kaunda International, visa policy and lodge investment in Livingstone and the national parks.

What it means for ordinary Zambians

The agenda’s connection to household finances runs through three channels. Jobs: each production target implies hiring, from mine shafts to feedlots, though critics including opposition politicians and civil society have pressed whether these will be jobs that pay formal wages or expanded informal piecework. Prices: a bigger maize and wheat harvest steadies mealie-meal prices, and 10,000 megawatts would end the load-shedding that inflated the cost of doing business in 2024. The exchange rate: more copper and agro exports mean more dollars flowing into the market, which supports the kwacha and, with it, the price of fuel and imported goods.

There is also the tax question. The IMF programme requires a primary surplus built on domestic revenue, which keeps pressure on the Zambia Revenue Authority to collect more from a base that includes a large informal sector. Growth that widens the formal economy would make that arithmetic easier; growth that does not will keep the burden on existing payers. The exchange-rate channel is already visible: copper dollars are the main reason the kwacha has held much of its ground this year, as we analysed here.

Business and investor implications

For businesses, the agenda signals where government attention and public procurement will concentrate over the next five years: agriculture inputs and offtake, power generation and transmission, tourism infrastructure and beef value chains. Suppliers and contractors who position in those lanes are more likely to see policy support and donor co-financing. SMEs should also watch the enterprise support architecture, including schemes such as the MSME graduation programme we covered here.

For investors, the IMF facility reduces balance-of-payments risk and signals exchange-rate discipline through 2029, which matters for anyone repatriating dividends. The copper push needs an estimated US$21 billion of investment across the economy, and government has shown it will court foreign capital to get there. The trade-off is tighter fiscal policy, which limits domestic demand-led plays, and a mining tax regime that must stay predictable if the 3 million tonne target is to be bankable.

Policy implications

The agenda’s credibility rests on execution capacity more than on ambition. Three things will decide it. Power: without at least 8,000 reliable megawatts, the copper target fails and drags the export math with it. Animal health: veterinary containment of anthrax and foot-and-mouth determines whether the beef target survives contact with EU-grade sanitary standards. Fiscal discipline: delivering investment-led growth while running a 3 percent primary surplus means every kwacha of the US$21 billion must largely come from private and concessional sources, not the budget. The 2027 budget, which we analysed here, is the first full test of whether allocations follow the agenda’s own metrics.

Conclusion

The Grow Zambia Agenda is the most quantified economic programme any Zambian government has published: eight numbers, one deadline and an explicit promise to more than double the economy by 2031. The IMF’s endorsement on 9 October, worth about US$1.47 billion, gives it a safety net but also a referee. Maize and tourism are trending in the right direction. Copper, power and beef require transformations, not increments. Musokotwane’s test is the one to hold the programme to: not whether the tonnes are produced, but whether the average Zambian household can feel the difference by the end of the decade.

WARNING! All rights reserved. This material and all other digital content on this website may not be reproduced, published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed, in whole or in part, without the prior express permission of The Zambian Economist. Where permission is granted, the content must be clearly credited to “The Zambian Economist,” with “www.zambianeconomist.com” prominently displayed.

WhatsApp: +260775574228 | Email: info@zambianeconomist.com © 2026 The Zambian Economist.

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Sources

• IMF press release, staff-level agreement on a new ECF, 9 October 2026
• Ministry of Finance and National Planning, Grow Zambia production code briefing
• ZamStats, agricultural production statistics
• ZIPAR, Striking while the iron’s hot: tripling copper output by 2031
• Reuters, Zambia aims to lift economic growth above 7%, 28 September 2026
• News Diggers, US$1bn beef export target achievable, 9 October 2026
• US International Trade Administration, Zambia Energy Country Commercial Guide

Related: Zambia@62: A Self-Funded Independence Week for an Economy Told to Do More With Less.

Related: Our Independence, Our Shared Responsibility: Zambia at 62, on community service and the follow-up needed after Independence Week.